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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Thursday, April 23, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/23.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, April 23, 2026—are live with the Knicks' Jalen Brunson projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections derive insights from detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Brunson, Donovan Mitchell and CJ McCollum lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (April 23, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 14.4% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 14.1% |
| CJ McCollum | Hawks | 13.5% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 13.3% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 12.4% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 12.1% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 12.1% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 12.0% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 11.8% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 11.4% |
| Jaden McDaniels | Timberwolves | 11.4% |
| Jarrett Allen | Cavaliers | 11.2% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 10.9% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Hawks | 10.7% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 10.6% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 23, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 2.5% | +950 | 12.0% |
| Christian Braun | Nuggets | 2.4% | +1600 | 8.3% |
| Jaden McDaniels | Timberwolves | 2.3% | +1000 | 11.4% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 1.5% | +1100 | 9.8% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 0.4% | +850 | 10.9% |
| CJ McCollum | Hawks | 0.1% | +650 | 13.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/23.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Playoffs action onThursday, April 23, 2026, Jalen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell and CJ McCollum lead our first basket projections, while RJ Barrett shapes as the strongest value play at +950. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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