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Read Article NBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Thursday, May 7, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 5/7.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, May 7, 2026—are live with the Cavaliers' Donovan Mitchell projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections make use of key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and LeBron James lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (May 7, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 15.8% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 15.6% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 13.8% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.4% |
| Chet Holmgren | Thunder | 12.6% |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 12.5% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 11.1% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 11.0% |
| Rui Hachimura | Lakers | 9.7% |
| Austin Reaves | Lakers | 9.6% |
| James Harden | Cavaliers | 9.4% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 9.0% |
| Ajay Mitchell | Thunder | 8.6% |
| Jarrett Allen | Cavaliers | 8.4% |
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 8.1% |
NBA first basket picks today (May 7, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | Lakers | 2.1% | +750 | 13.8% |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 1.4% | +800 | 12.5% |
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 1.0% | +1300 | 8.1% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 0.4% | +550 | 15.8% |
| James Harden | Cavaliers | 0.3% | +1000 | 9.4% |
| Dean Wade | Cavaliers | 0.3% | +1900 | 5.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/7.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Playoffs action onThursday, May 7, 2026, Donovan Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and LeBron James lead our first basket projections, with James shaping as the strongest value play at +750. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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