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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, January 20, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/20.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, January 20, 2026—are live with the Spurs' Victor Wembanyama projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections are based on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Wembanyama, Tyrese Maxey and Anthony Edwards lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 20, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 17.9% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 16.8% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 15.7% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 15.6% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 15.6% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 14.7% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 14.6% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 13.8% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 13.8% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 13.5% |
| James Harden | Clippers | 13.4% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 13.3% |
| John Collins | Clippers | 12.8% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 12.5% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 12.5% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 20, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 2.6% | +600 | 16.8% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 2.3% | +650 | 15.6% |
| Peyton Watson | Nuggets | 1.7% | +900 | 11.7% |
| Aaron Gordon | Nuggets | 1.5% | +850 | 12.0% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 1.5% | +850 | 12.0% |
| Cody Williams | Jazz | 1.4% | +1200 | 9.1% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 1.0% | +950 | 10.6% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | Raptors | 1.0% | +1000 | 10.1% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 0.8% | +700 | 13.3% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 0.4% | +800 | 11.5% |
| Immanuel Quickley | Raptors | 0.1% | +1000 | 9.2% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/20.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Tuesday, January 20, 2026, Victor Wembanyama, Tyrese Maxey and Anthony Edwards lead our first basket projections, with Maxey shaping as the strongest value play at +600. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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