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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, February 3, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 2/3.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, February 3, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Shaedon Sharpe and Jaylen Brown lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (February 3, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 18.1% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 16.1% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 16.0% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 15.8% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 15.1% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 15.0% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 14.4% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 14.3% |
| Moses Moody | Warriors | 13.8% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.7% |
| Jay Huff | Pacers | 13.7% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 13.6% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Bulls | 13.5% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 13.3% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 13.1% |
NBA first basket picks today (February 3, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moses Moody | Warriors | 4.7% | +1000 | 13.7% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 3.8% | +600 | 18.1% |
| Peyton Watson | Nuggets | 3.4% | +1100 | 11.7% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Bulls | 3.0% | +850 | 13.5% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 2.4% | +1000 | 11.5% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 2.1% | +900 | 12.1% |
| Jarace Walker | Pacers | 1.3% | +750 | 13.0% |
| Pelle Larsson | Heat | 1.2% | +950 | 10.7% |
| Brandin Podziemski | Warriors | 1.1% | +800 | 12.2% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 1.1% | +700 | 13.6% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 0.9% | +650 | 14.3% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 0.7% | +550 | 16.1% |
| Kyshawn George | Wizards | 0.4% | +750 | 12.1% |
| Jay Huff | Pacers | 0.4% | +650 | 13.7% |
| Myles Turner | Bucks | 0.3% | +850 | 10.8% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 0.1% | +750 | 11.8% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 2/3.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Tuesday, February 3, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Shaedon Sharpe and Jaylen Brown lead our first basket projections, while Moses Moody shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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