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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, February 10, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 2/10.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, February 10, 2026—are live with the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Leonard, Cooper Flagg and Pascal Siakam lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (February 10, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 17.6% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 15.8% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 14.2% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 13.8% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 13.0% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 12.3% |
| John Collins | Clippers | 12.2% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 12.2% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 12.2% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 11.4% |
| Mark Williams | Suns | 11.1% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 10.8% |
| Jarace Walker | Pacers | 10.8% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 10.6% |
| OG Anunoby | Knicks | 10.4% |
NBA first basket picks today (February 10, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 4.0% | +750 | 15.8% |
| Tari Eason | Rockets | 3.2% | +1400 | 9.8% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 1.8% | +1000 | 10.8% |
| Max Christie | Mavericks | 1.7% | +1200 | 9.4% |
| Jarace Walker | Pacers | 0.8% | +900 | 10.8% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 0.7% | +490 | 17.6% |
| Josh Hart | Knicks | 0.0% | +1100 | 8.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 2/10.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Tuesday, February 10, 2026, Kawhi Leonard, Cooper Flagg and Pascal Siakam lead our first basket projections, with Flagg shaping as the strongest value play at +750. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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