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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, March 10, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/10.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, March 10, 2026—are live with the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections derive insights from key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Antetokounmpo, Anthony Edwards and Jalen Duren lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 10, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 17.5% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 16.8% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 16.6% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 15.7% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 15.6% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 15.5% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 13.8% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 13.7% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 13.7% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.2% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 13.1% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 13.0% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 12.8% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 12.7% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 12.6% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 10, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 3.9% | +750 | 15.7% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 3.4% | +650 | 16.8% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 3.2% | +600 | 17.5% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 3.1% | +1000 | 12.2% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 1.9% | +750 | 13.7% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 1.4% | +900 | 11.4% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 0.5% | +700 | 13.0% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 0.2% | +550 | 15.6% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 0.1% | +700 | 12.6% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/10.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Tuesday, March 10, 2026, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Edwards and Jalen Duren lead our first basket projections, while Cooper Flagg shapes as the strongest value play at +750. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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