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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, March 17, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/17.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, March 17, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Devin Booker and Nikola Jokic lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 17, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 16.1% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 15.7% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 14.8% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 14.7% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 14.5% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 14.3% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 13.6% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 13.3% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 13.2% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.1% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 13.0% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 12.9% |
| Tristan Vukcevic | Wizards | 12.6% |
| Justin Edwards | 76ers | 12.5% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 12.3% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 17, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Vukcevic | Wizards | 3.5% | +1000 | 12.6% |
| Justin Edwards | 76ers | 3.4% | +1000 | 12.5% |
| Ajay Mitchell | Thunder | 1.8% | +900 | 11.8% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 1.4% | +900 | 11.4% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 0.9% | +650 | 14.3% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 0.8% | +800 | 11.9% |
| Quentin Grimes | 76ers | 0.7% | +850 | 11.2% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 0.4% | +800 | 11.6% |
| Jaden McDaniels | Timberwolves | 0.4% | +800 | 11.5% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 0.3% | +550 | 15.7% |
| Andrew Nembhard | Pacers | 0.3% | +800 | 11.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/17.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Tuesday, March 17, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Devin Booker and Nikola Jokic lead our first basket projections, while Tristan Vukcevic shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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