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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, March 31, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/31.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, March 31, 2026—are live with the Lakers' Luka Doncic projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections derive insights from key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Doncic, Kawhi Leonard and Jalen Duren lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 31, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 17.6% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 16.3% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 14.9% |
| Daniel Gafford | Mavericks | 14.8% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 14.3% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.5% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 13.5% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 13.3% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 13.2% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 13.0% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 12.9% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 12.9% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 12.8% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 12.7% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 12.6% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 31, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 2.9% | +950 | 12.5% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 2.2% | +550 | 17.6% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 1.5% | +950 | 11.0% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 1.2% | +750 | 12.9% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 0.8% | +700 | 13.3% |
| Donovan Clingan | Trail Blazers | 0.7% | +900 | 10.7% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 0.6% | +600 | 14.9% |
| Daniel Gafford | Mavericks | 0.5% | +600 | 14.8% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 0.4% | +700 | 12.9% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 0.2% | +650 | 13.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/31.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Tuesday, March 31, 2026, Luka Doncic, Kawhi Leonard and Jalen Duren lead our first basket projections, while Dillon Brooks shapes as the strongest value play at +950. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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