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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, April 7, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/7.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, April 7, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Kawhi Leonard and Cooper Flagg lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (April 7, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 18.0% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 17.4% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 14.9% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 14.8% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 14.7% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 14.5% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 14.3% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 14.3% |
| Collin Sexton | Bulls | 13.9% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 13.8% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 13.7% |
| Ousmane Dieng | Bucks | 13.6% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.1% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 12.9% |
| Rui Hachimura | Lakers | 12.8% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 7, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 4.4% | +850 | 14.9% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 4.4% | +1200 | 12.1% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 3.7% | +600 | 18.0% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 2.9% | +750 | 14.7% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 2.6% | +800 | 13.7% |
| Precious Achiuwa | Kings | 2.4% | +1000 | 11.5% |
| Rui Hachimura | Lakers | 1.7% | +800 | 12.8% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 1.7% | +850 | 12.2% |
| Quenton Jackson | Pacers | 1.0% | +850 | 11.5% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 0.9% | +650 | 14.3% |
| Bilal Coulibaly | Wizards | 0.2% | +800 | 11.4% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 0.2% | +800 | 11.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/7.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Tuesday, April 7, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kawhi Leonard and Cooper Flagg lead our first basket projections, with Flagg shaping as the strongest value play at +850. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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