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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 2/4.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Wednesday, February 4, 2026—are live with the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections derive insights from detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Leonard, Nikola Jokic and Anthony Edwards lead Wednesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (February 4, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 17.1% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 15.6% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 15.2% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 14.0% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 13.3% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.3% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 12.7% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 12.3% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 12.2% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 12.2% |
| Myles Turner | Bucks | 12.0% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 12.0% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 12.0% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 11.9% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 11.4% |
NBA first basket picks today (February 4, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 4.6% | +700 | 17.1% |
| Peyton Watson | Nuggets | 3.0% | +1200 | 10.7% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 2.7% | +950 | 12.2% |
| Jaylon Tyson | Cavaliers | 1.7% | +950 | 11.2% |
| Zach LaVine | Kings | 1.3% | +1000 | 10.3% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 1.0% | +1000 | 10.1% |
| John Collins | Clippers | 0.8% | +900 | 10.8% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 0.6% | +900 | 10.6% |
| Immanuel Quickley | Raptors | 0.1% | +950 | 9.6% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 2/4.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Wednesday, February 4, 2026, Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Jokic and Anthony Edwards lead our first basket projections, with Leonard shaping as the strongest value play at +700. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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