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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Wednesday, March 11, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/11.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Wednesday, March 11, 2026—are live with the Timberwolves' Anthony Edwards projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections are based on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Edwards, Nikola Jokic and Kawhi Leonard lead Wednesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 11, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 16.2% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 15.8% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 14.8% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 14.1% |
| Paolo Banchero | Magic | 13.9% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 13.5% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 13.3% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 13.2% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 13.0% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.0% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 13.0% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 12.8% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 12.6% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 12.5% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 12.5% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 11, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 3.2% | +1100 | 11.5% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 2.1% | +800 | 13.2% |
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 1.3% | +1100 | 9.6% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 1.2% | +750 | 13.0% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 0.8% | +550 | 16.2% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 0.5% | +700 | 13.0% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/11.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Wednesday, March 11, 2026, Anthony Edwards, Nikola Jokic and Kawhi Leonard lead our first basket projections, while Brice Sensabaugh shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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