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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Wednesday, March 18, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/18.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Wednesday, March 18, 2026—are live with the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Leonard, Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead Wednesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 18, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.7% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 15.4% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 15.4% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 14.8% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 13.5% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.3% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 13.2% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 13.2% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 13.1% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 13.0% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 13.0% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 12.8% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 12.8% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 12.8% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 12.7% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 18, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 4.0% | +950 | 13.5% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 3.7% | +1000 | 12.8% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 3.3% | +950 | 12.8% |
| Isaiah Collier | Jazz | 2.9% | +1000 | 12.0% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 2.7% | +1100 | 11.0% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 2.4% | +850 | 13.0% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 2.4% | +900 | 12.4% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 1.2% | +750 | 13.0% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 0.7% | +700 | 13.2% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 0.7% | +700 | 13.2% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 0.6% | +750 | 12.4% |
| Andrew Nembhard | Pacers | 0.6% | +800 | 11.7% |
| Jarace Walker | Pacers | 0.5% | +900 | 10.5% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 0.3% | +700 | 12.8% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/18.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Wednesday, March 18, 2026, Kawhi Leonard, Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead our first basket projections, while Ty Jerome shapes as the strongest value play at +950. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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