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Read Article NBA first basket picks and predictions for Wednesday, March 25, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/25.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Wednesday, March 25, 2026—are live with the Lakers' Luka Doncic projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Doncic, Jalen Duren and Victor Wembanyama lead Wednesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 25, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 17.5% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 17.0% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 16.6% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 16.1% |
| Ace Bailey | Jazz | 15.9% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.8% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 14.9% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 14.8% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 14.5% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 13.7% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 13.6% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 13.5% |
| Daniel Gafford | Mavericks | 13.4% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.2% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 13.1% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 25, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 4.7% | +1100 | 13.1% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 4.2% | +850 | 14.8% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 3.8% | +1000 | 12.9% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 2.6% | +800 | 13.7% |
| Daniel Gafford | Mavericks | 2.2% | +800 | 13.4% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 1.5% | +650 | 14.9% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 1.2% | +800 | 12.3% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 0.7% | +550 | 16.1% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 0.4% | +550 | 15.8% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 0.4% | +700 | 12.9% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 0.3% | +650 | 13.6% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 0.1% | +700 | 12.6% |
| Bilal Coulibaly | Wizards | 0.1% | +750 | 11.9% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 0.1% | +490 | 17.0% |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 0.0% | +700 | 12.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/25.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Wednesday, March 25, 2026, Luka Doncic, Jalen Duren and Victor Wembanyama lead our first basket projections, while Tre Jones shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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