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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Play-In Tournament, Wednesday, April 15, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/15.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Wednesday, April 15, 2026—are live with the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Leonard, Stephen Curry and Franz Wagner lead Wednesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (Play-In Tournament, Wednesday, April 15, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 17.4% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 14.8% |
| Franz Wagner | Magic | 13.9% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 13.2% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 12.9% |
| Paul George | 76ers | 12.6% |
| Brandin Podziemski | Warriors | 12.1% |
| Kristaps Porzingis | Warriors | 11.1% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 10.5% |
| Paolo Banchero | Magic | 10.1% |
| Brook Lopez | Clippers | 9.5% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 9.4% |
| Jalen Suggs | Magic | 8.5% |
| Adem Bona | 76ers | 5.5% |
| Draymond Green | Warriors | 4.9% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 15, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 2.0% | +550 | 17.4% |
| Franz Wagner | Magic | 0.6% | +650 | 13.9% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 0.6% | +600 | 14.8% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/15.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Play-In Tourmanent action on Wednesday, April 15, 2026, Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Curry and Franz Wagner lead our first basket projections, with Leonard shaping as the strongest value play at +550. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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