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NBA Picks: Three bets to make for league's return on Thursday, February 19
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
We use the Dimers Pro NBA tools to find three ways to bet on the league's return from the All-Star Break on Thursday, February 19.
The NBA All-Star break is over and the league roars back to life on Thursday night, February 19, which means the NBA betting board is once again full with NBA picks, props and more from spreads, totals, and player markets available once again.
With 20 teams in action on the first night back, and sportsbooks recalibrating after a week off, the Dimers model is packed to the brim with betting opportunities and we're going to use every tool in the Dimers Pro arsenal to find the best ways to attack the Thursday NBA slate.
We’re targeting three different types of bets, all powered by Dimers’ predictive model and tools available inside Dimers Pro and the new Dimers App.
Dimers Pro allows bettors to compare sportsbook prices against our model's predicted probabilities and identify mispriced totals, spreads or player prop lines. Those are exactly the types of situations we leaned on before the hiatus, cashing the Bucks at +600 on the ML and identifying a LeBron James triple-double on the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast.
Who took the LeBron triple double?? 🤑
— Dimers (@DimersCom) February 13, 2026
Gets his first of the year, and the oldest to ever do it. https://t.co/BtOb7o5MME
Three bets to make when the NBA returns on Thursday
A 10-game slate welcomes us back to betting on the NBA, but we're focusing on four games for the purposes of this article: Hawks vs. 76ers, Nuggets vs. Clippers, Knicks vs. Pistons and
Bet: Immanuel Quickley three-point ladder
The first angle we'll look at is one you can take as far as you're willing.
Immanuel Quickley dialed up his best performances from beyond the arc in February, right before the break, hitting 3+ three-pointers in five straight, tallying 4 and 6 in one game each as well.
Though a smaller sample size than any previous month, Quickley found a hot hand for his best calendar month of the season so far as a deep shooter.
In his first game back from the break, he'll get a matchup with the Bulls, who have been the worst three-point defense in the league over their past 15 games, allowing a 40.7% shooting percentage from deep.
Quickley's projection of 2.7 threes by the Dimers model isn't particularly high, but it's notable as the highest mark in this game, with his 3+ threes available right near even money odds on FanDuel at -106.
Bettors looking for Quickley to capitalize on this exploitable matchup can consider him to get 4+ (+235), 5+ (+550) or even 6+ (+1100) based on his recent performances.
🏀 MORE: Chicago Bulls vs. Toronto Raptors full game prediction
Bet: Jalen Johnson to get a Triple-Double (+275 on DraftKings)
The Hawks forward has emerged as a true star this season, posting career-high numbers across the board, led by a jump in assists from a previous career best 5.0 per game in 2024-25, to 8.2 per game this season.
As of publishing, Johnson sits as our No. 1 overall prop on the board at a 58.3% probability to go over 8.5 assists, an excellent value bet for those looking to play a high probability straight bet.
However, our full projection for Johnson is 24.3 PTS, 9.9 REB and 9.9 AST, putting him right on the money for a triple double.
He's recorded 10 of them this season, including in three straight games in the weeks before the All-Star Break, and his odds range significantly from +185 to +275 to record one vs. the 76erson Thursday night.
Philadelphia has allowed the 4th-most AST over their past 15 games, and rank 18th vs. opponent rebounds, while Johnson has just five games under double-digit boards in his last 15.
🏀 MORE: Atlanta Hawks vs. Philadelphia 76ers full game prediction
Bet: Knicks/Nuggets ML Parlay (+140 on DraftKings)
The last betting angle we'll look at utilizes two games with the profitable market for the Dimers model this season, Knicks vs. Pistons and Nuggets vs. Clippers.
Moneyline plays with a 2% edge or higher have returned a 6.4% ROI over 160 total bets this season, pointing to a consistently profitable market by our NBA model.
Tonight, both the Knicks and Nuggets share a 2% edge, 66% probability, falling right into one of our Sweet Spots. However, odds of -170 to -180, depending on where you bet them, are not the most appealing, so let's consider a two-leg ML parlay at odds of +140.
Denver is 2-0 against Los Angeles this season and has won four straight regular-season games in this matchup.
New York is hot with an 8-2 record ATS over their last 10, entering this game as 4.5-point favorites, though Detroit has thrived as an underdog this season, winning 9 of 10 games.
While the Pistons are a dangerous team, our model's data says they should be +200, while they are just +150, putting the value with New York's 66.7% win probability.
Dimers' NBA betting resources for the 2025-26 season
- NBA Game Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every NBA matchup, every day.
- NBA Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game.
- NBA Finals Odds: Who will win the championship?
- Best NBA Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
- NBA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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