NBA Picks: Three bets to make for league's return on Thursday, February 19

Bet: Immanuel Quickley three-point ladder

The first angle we'll look at is one you can take as far as you're willing.

Immanuel Quickley dialed up his best performances from beyond the arc in February, right before the break, hitting 3+ three-pointers in five straight, tallying 4 and 6 in one game each as well.

Though a smaller sample size than any previous month, Quickley found a hot hand for his best calendar month of the season so far as a deep shooter.

In his first game back from the break, he'll get a matchup with the Bulls, who have been the worst three-point defense in the league over their past 15 games, allowing a 40.7% shooting percentage from deep.

Quickley's projection of 2.7 threes by the Dimers model isn't particularly high, but it's notable as the highest mark in this game, with his 3+ threes available right near even money odds on FanDuel at -106.

Bettors looking for Quickley to capitalize on this exploitable matchup can consider him to get 4+ (+235), 5+ (+550) or even 6+ (+1100) based on his recent performances.

🏀 MORE: Chicago Bulls vs. Toronto Raptors full game prediction

Bet: Jalen Johnson to get a Triple-Double (+275 on DraftKings)

The Hawks forward has emerged as a true star this season, posting career-high numbers across the board, led by a jump in assists from a previous career best 5.0 per game in 2024-25, to 8.2 per game this season.

As of publishing, Johnson sits as our No. 1 overall prop on the board at a 58.3% probability to go over 8.5 assists, an excellent value bet for those looking to play a high probability straight bet.

However, our full projection for Johnson is 24.3 PTS, 9.9 REB and 9.9 AST, putting him right on the money for a triple double.

He's recorded 10 of them this season, including in three straight games in the weeks before the All-Star Break, and his odds range significantly from +185 to +275 to record one vs. the 76erson Thursday night.

Philadelphia has allowed the 4th-most AST over their past 15 games, and rank 18th vs. opponent rebounds, while Johnson has just five games under double-digit boards in his last 15.

🏀 MORE: Atlanta Hawks vs. Philadelphia 76ers full game prediction

Bet: Knicks/Nuggets ML Parlay (+140 on DraftKings)

The last betting angle we'll look at utilizes two games with the profitable market for the Dimers model this season, Knicks vs. Pistons and Nuggets vs. Clippers.

Moneyline plays with a 2% edge or higher have returned a 6.4% ROI over 160 total bets this season, pointing to a consistently profitable market by our NBA model.

Tonight, both the Knicks and Nuggets share a 2% edge, 66% probability, falling right into one of our Sweet Spots. However, odds of -170 to -180, depending on where you bet them, are not the most appealing, so let's consider a two-leg ML parlay at odds of +140.

Denver is 2-0 against Los Angeles this season and has won four straight regular-season games in this matchup.

New York is hot with an 8-2 record ATS over their last 10, entering this game as 4.5-point favorites, though Detroit has thrived as an underdog this season, winning 9 of 10 games.

While the Pistons are a dangerous team, our model's data says they should be +200, while they are just +150, putting the value with New York's 66.7% win probability. 

Dimers' NBA betting resources for the 2025-26 season

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