NBA player props today: Friday's best props include Mitchell Robinson [3/6/2026]

Mitchell Robinson over 1.5 blocks (+178)

• Edge: 11.0%
• Probability: 47.0%
• Projection: 1.1
• Game: Knicks vs. Nuggets (9:00PM ET)

Our model has flagged value on New York's Mitchell Robinson over 1.5 blocks. A probability of 47.0% gives this play an edge of 11.0% at +178 odds.

Alperen Sengun over 1.5 blocks (+165)

• Edge: 10.8%
• Probability: 48.5%
• Projection: 1.3
• Game: Trail Blazers vs. Rockets (8:00PM ET)

Alperen Sengun’s blocks prop shows a 10.8% edge at +165 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.3 blocks on the over 1.5 line.

Grayson Allen over 1.5 steals (+179)

• Edge: 9.6%
• Probability: 45.5%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Pelicans vs. Suns (9:00PM ET)

The data highlights value on Grayson Allen over 1.5 steals, with simulations showing a 45.5% probability and a 9.6% edge at +179.

Alperen Sengun over 1.5 steals (+162)

• Edge: 9.1%
• Probability: 47.3%
• Projection: 1.3
• Game: Trail Blazers vs. Rockets (8:00PM ET)

Our model projects Alperen Sengun to put up 1.3 steals today, creating an edge of 9.1% on the over 1.5 line at +162 odds.

Bruce Brown over 1.5 steals (+178)

• Edge: 8.7%
• Probability: 44.6%
• Projection: 1.1
• Game: Knicks vs. Nuggets (9:00PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Bruce Brown over 1.5 steals for Denver, showing an edge of 8.7% at +178 odds.

Jalen Green over 4.5 rebounds (+136)

• Edge: 8.5%
• Probability: 50.8%
• Projection: 4.7
• Game: Pelicans vs. Suns (9:00PM ET)

Jalen Green’s rebounds prop shows an edge of 8.5% at +136 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 4.7 today.

Mikal Bridges over 1.5 steals (+162)

• Edge: 8.1%
• Probability: 46.2%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Knicks vs. Nuggets (9:00PM ET)

Our model projects Mikal Bridges for 1.2 steals for New York, creating an edge of 8.1% on over 1.5 at +162 odds.

Jalen Green over 1.5 steals (+169)

• Edge: 7.5%
• Probability: 44.7%
• Projection: 1.1
• Game: Pelicans vs. Suns (9:00PM ET)

Our expert modelling projects Jalen Green for 1.1 steals, creating value on the over 1.5 line at +169 odds and a 7.5% edge.

Collin Gillespie over 1.5 steals (+162)

• Edge: 7.2%
• Probability: 45.3%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Pelicans vs. Suns (9:00PM ET)

A 7.2% edge on the over 1.5 steals line makes Collin Gillespie a value play in Pelicans vs. Suns, with our model projecting him for 1.2 steals at +162 odds.

Kevin Durant over 4.5 assists (+117)

• Edge: 6.4%
• Probability: 52.5%
• Projection: 5.0
• Game: Trail Blazers vs. Rockets (8:00PM ET)

Simulations project Kevin Durant for 5.0 assists here, creating a 6.4% edge on the over 4.5 line at +117 odds.

NBA player prop summary: Friday, March 6, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by edge according to our model as of 8:57PM ET:

Matchup	Prop	Odds	Edge	Probability
Knicks vs. Nuggets	Mitchell Robinson over 1.5 blocks	+178 @ FanDuel	11.0%	47.0%
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets	Alperen Sengun over 1.5 blocks	+165 @ BetMGM	10.8%	48.5%
Pelicans vs. Suns	Grayson Allen over 1.5 steals	+179 @ DraftKings	9.1%	47.3%
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets	Alperen Sengun over 1.5 steals	+162 @ FanDuel	9.1%	47.3%
Knicks vs. Nuggets	Bruce Brown over 1.5 steals	+178 @ FanDuel	8.7%	44.6%
Pelicans vs. Suns	Jalen Green over 4.5 rebounds	+136 @ FanDuel	8.5%	50.8%
Knicks vs. Nuggets	Mikal Bridges over 1.5 steals	+162 @ DraftKings	8.1%	46.2%
Pelicans vs. Suns	Jalen Green over 1.5 steals	+169 @ DraftKings	7.5%	44.7%
Pelicans vs. Suns	Collin Gillespie over 1.5 steals	+162 @ FanDuel	7.2%	45.3%
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets	Kevin Durant over 4.5 assists	+117 @ DraftKings	6.4%	52.5%

Conclusion

For March 6, 2026, our NBA prop bets feature players such as Mitchell Robinson, Alperen Sengun and Grayson Allen. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.