NBA player props today: Thursday's best props include De'Aaron Fox [3/5/2026]

De'Aaron Fox over 1.5 steals (+194)

• Edge: 12.0%
• Probability: 46.0%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Pistons vs. Spurs (8:00PM ET)

Our model has flagged value on San Antonio's De'Aaron Fox over 1.5 steals. A probability of 46.0% gives this play an edge of 12.0% at +194 odds.

Andrew Wiggins over 1.5 steals (+194)

• Edge: 11.8%
• Probability: 45.8%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Nets vs. Heat (7:30PM ET)

Andrew Wiggins’s steals prop shows an 11.8% edge at +194 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.2 steals on the over 1.5 line.

Jaden McDaniels over 1.5 steals (+194)

• Edge: 11.2%
• Probability: 45.3%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Raptors vs. Timberwolves (8:00PM ET)

The data highlights value on Jaden McDaniels over 1.5 steals, with simulations showing a 45.3% probability and an 11.2% edge at +194.

Tobias Harris over 1.5 steals (+194)

• Edge: 11.2%
• Probability: 45.2%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Pistons vs. Spurs (8:00PM ET)

Our model projects Tobias Harris to record 1.2 steals today, creating an edge of 11.2% on the over 1.5 line at +194 odds.

Jamal Murray over 1.5 steals (+194)

• Edge: 11.1%
• Probability: 45.1%
• Projection: 1.1
• Game: Lakers vs. Nuggets (10:00PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Jamal Murray over 1.5 steals for Denver, showing an edge of 11.1% at +194 odds.

Precious Achiuwa over 1.5 blocks (+170)

• Edge: 10.8%
• Probability: 47.9%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Pelicans vs. Kings (10:00PM ET)

Precious Achiuwa’s blocks prop shows an edge of 10.8% at +170 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.2 today.

Gui Santos over 1.5 steals (+178)

• Edge: 10.7%
• Probability: 46.7%
• Projection: 1.3
• Game: Warriors vs. Rockets (7:30PM ET)

Our model projects Gui Santos for 1.3 steals for Golden State, creating an edge of 10.7% on over 1.5 at +178 odds.

Kyle Filipowski over 1.5 steals (+178)

• Edge: 9.4%
• Probability: 45.4%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Jazz vs. Wizards (7:00PM ET)

Our expert modelling projects Kyle Filipowski for 1.2 steals, creating value on the over 1.5 line at +178 odds and a 9.4% edge.

Nic Claxton under 0.5 blocks (+178)

• Edge: 9.0%
• Probability: 44.9%
• Projection: 1.0
• Game: Nets vs. Heat (7:30PM ET)

A 9.0% edge on the under 1.5 blocks line makes Nic Claxton a value play in Nets vs. Heat, with our model projecting him for 1.0 blocks at +178 odds.

Al Horford over 1.5 blocks (+155)

• Edge: 8.9%
• Probability: 48.1%
• Projection: 1.3
• Game: Warriors vs. Rockets (7:30PM ET)

Simulations project Al Horford for 1.3 blocks here, creating a 8.9% edge on the over 1.5 line at +155 odds.

NBA player prop summary: Thursday, March 5, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by edge according to our model as of 5:31PM ET:

Matchup	Prop	Odds	Edge	Probability
Pistons vs. Spurs	De'Aaron Fox over 1.5 steals	+194 @ FanDuel	12.0%	46.0%
Nets vs. Heat	Andrew Wiggins over 1.5 steals	+194 @ FanDuel	11.8%	45.8%
Raptors vs. Timberwolves	Jaden McDaniels over 1.5 steals	+194 @ FanDuel	11.2%	45.2%
Pistons vs. Spurs	Tobias Harris over 1.5 steals	+194 @ FanDuel	11.2%	45.2%
Lakers vs. Nuggets	Jamal Murray over 1.5 steals	+194 @ FanDuel	11.1%	45.1%
Pelicans vs. Kings	Precious Achiuwa over 1.5 blocks	+170 @ BetMGM	10.8%	47.9%
Warriors vs. Rockets	Gui Santos over 1.5 steals	+178 @ FanDuel	10.7%	46.7%
Jazz vs. Wizards	Kyle Filipowski over 1.5 steals	+178 @ FanDuel	9.4%	45.4%
Nets vs. Heat	Nic Claxton under 1.5 blocks	+178 @ FanDuel	9.0%	44.9%
Warriors vs. Rockets	Al Horford over 1.5 blocks	+155 @ BetMGM	8.9%	48.1%

Conclusion

For March 5, 2026, our NBA prop bets feature players such as De'Aaron Fox, Andrew Wiggins and Jaden McDaniels. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.