NBA player props today: Wednesday's best props include Stephon Castle [2/25/2026]

Stephon Castle over 1.5 steals (+194)

• Edge: 11.4%
• Probability: 45.4%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Spurs vs. Raptors (7:30PM ET)

Our model has found value on San Antonio's Stephon Castle over 1.5 steals. A probability of 45.4% gives this play an edge of 11.4% at +194 odds.

Al Horford over 1.5 blocks (+170)

• Edge: 10.8%
• Probability: 47.9%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Warriors vs. Grizzlies (7:30PM ET)

Al Horford’s blocks prop shows a 10.8% edge at +170 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.2 blocks on the over 1.5 line.

Jaylin Williams over 1.5 blocks (+165)

• Edge: 10.3%
• Probability: 48.0%
• Projection: 1.3
• Game: Thunder vs. Pistons (7:30PM ET)

The data highlights value on Jaylin Williams over 1.5 blocks, with simulations showing a 48.0% probability and a 10.3% edge at +165.

Derrick White over 1.5 blocks (+162)

• Edge: 10.3%
• Probability: 48.4%
• Projection: 1.3
• Game: Celtics vs. Nuggets (10:00PM ET)

Our model projects Derrick White to put up 1.3 blocks today, creating an edge of 10.3% on the over 1.5 line at +162 odds.

James Harden over 1.5 steals (+178)

• Edge: 9.4%
• Probability: 45.3%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Cavaliers vs. Bucks (8:00PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on James Harden over 1.5 steals for Cleveland, showing an edge of 9.4% at +178 odds.

Jaylen Brown over 5.5 assists (+140)

• Edge: 8.8%
• Probability: 50.5%
• Projection: 5.6
• Game: Celtics vs. Nuggets (10:00PM ET)

Jaylen Brown’s assists prop shows an edge of 8.8% at +140 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 5.6 today.

Scottie Barnes over 5.5 assists (+130)

• Edge: 8.7%
• Probability: 52.2%
• Projection: 5.9
• Game: Spurs vs. Raptors (7:30PM ET)

Our model projects Scottie Barnes for 5.9 assists for Toronto, creating an edge of 8.7% on over 5.5 at +130 odds.

Jamal Murray under 0.5 steals (+178)

• Edge: 8.0%
• Probability: 43.9%
• Projection: 1.0
• Game: Celtics vs. Nuggets (10:00PM ET)

Our expert modelling projects Jamal Murray for 1.0 steals, creating value on the under 0.5 line at +178 odds and a 8.0% edge.

De'Aaron Fox over 1.5 steals (+162)

• Edge: 7.5%
• Probability: 45.7%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Spurs vs. Raptors (7:30PM ET)

A 7.5% edge on the over 0.5 steals line makes De'Aaron Fox a value play in Spurs vs. Raptors, with our model projecting him for 1.2 steals at +162 odds.

Alperen Sengun over 1.5 steals (+151)

• Edge: 7.2%
• Probability: 47.1%
• Projection: 1.3
• Game: Kings vs. Rockets (8:00PM ET)

Simulations project Alperen Sengun for 1.3 steals here, creating a 7.2% edge on the over 1.5 line at +151 odds.

NBA player prop summary: Wednesday, February 25, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by edge according to our model as of 6:13PM ET:

Matchup	Prop	Odds	Edge	Probability
Spurs vs. Raptors	Stephon Castle over 1.5 steals	+194 @ FanDuel	11.4%	45.4%
Warriors vs. Grizzlies	Al Horford over 1.5 blocks	+170 @ BetMGM	10.8%	47.9%
Thunder vs. Pistons	Jaylin Williams over 1.5 blocks	+165 @ BetMGM	10.3%	48.4%
Celtics vs. Nuggets	Derrick White over 1.5 blocks	+162 @ FanDuel	10.3%	48.4%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks	James Harden over 1.5 steals	+178 @ FanDuel	9.4%	45.3%
Celtics vs. Nuggets	Jaylen Brown over 5.5 assists	+140 @ BetMGM	8.8%	50.5%
Spurs vs. Raptors	Scottie Barnes over 5.5 assists	+130 @ FanDuel	8.7%	52.2%
Celtics vs. Nuggets	Jamal Murray under 0.5 steals	+178 @ FanDuel	8.0%	43.9%
Spurs vs. Raptors	De'Aaron Fox over 0.5 steals	+162 @ FanDuel	7.5%	45.7%
Kings vs. Rockets	Alperen Sengun over 1.5 steals	+151 @ DraftKings	7.2%	47.1%

Conclusion

For February 25, 2026, our NBA prop bets feature players such as Stephon Castle, Al Horford and Jaylin Williams. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.