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NBA Playoff Picks: The best bet in each game on Saturday, April 18
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The NBA Playoffs are here! See the best bet or player prop to make in each game based on the Dimers Pro data.
The NBA playoffs have finally arrived, tipping off with four games on Saturday, April 18. Using the Dimers data, we've uncovered the NBA best bet or player prop to make in each game.
For the adventurous bettors, you can combine all four into a longshot NBA parlay at +1249 odds.
Using every tool from the Dimers Pro suite like our NBA Player Projections and top NBA trends, we can compare lines, odds and more across the sportsbooks to find where the true value lies in each playoff matchup on Saturday.
🚨 Get 3 days of Dimers Pro for free - Not a Dimers Pro yet? Unlock our full projections, prop trends, and best bets with a three-day free trial!
1. Raptors +8 vs. Cavaliers (-105)
Game: Raptors vs. Cavaliers
Tip: 1:00 PM ET
In the first game of the day, we find our top spread pick of Saturday's games with the Raptors set at 8-point underdogs vs. the Cavaliers.
Dimers gives Toronto a 54.6% probability to cover the spread, which comes with a 3.4% edge against the best odds of -105 on bet365 sportsbook.
The Raptors swept this season series 3-0, but those games cam against a Cavs team that was without Darius Garland, hadn't yet traded for James Harden, and saw Donovan Mitchell and Jerrett Allen each miss a pair of games.
But the Raptors have one of the league's great defensive player in Scottie Barnes and they held opponents to one of the lowest 3PT% in the league, which lines up with our model projecting no players for 3 or more threes on the Cavs.
2. Nikola Jokic over 9.5 assists (-106)
Game: Timberwolves vs. Nuggets
Tip: 3:30 PM ET
Moving to the second game of the day and we have our top prop of the slate, with Nikola Jokic projected to go over 9.5 assists, with a big 63.0% probability which gives us an 11.6% edge at -106 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Jokic was the league leader in assists, averaging 10.7 per game during the regular season with as much upside as anyone in the league, cashing this line in 14 of 20 games since March 1, excluding the season finale in which he rested after 18 minutes.
In all but one of the game he went over he tallied at least 12 assists, which is around where we project him with 11.9, also putting his alternate lines of 11+ and 12+ in play.
In 4 games vs. Minnesota this season, Jokic averaged 35.8 points, 15.0 rebounds and 11.3 assists per game.
Jokic's assist prop in the Dimers App.
3. Karl-Anthony Towns 12+ rebounds (-115)
Game: Hawks vs. Knicks
Tip: 6:00 PM ET
There's not a lot of player prop value or game line edges in Knicks vs. Hawks, but we can use our NBA Player Projections to find a play, which is how we've landed on 12+ rebounds for Karl-Anthony Towns.
KAT's rebounds line is set at 11.5, with a projection of 12.5 from our simulations, and if you bet him for 12+ rather than his over 11.5, you get just slightly better odds of -115 compared to -118 for the same result, both on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Towns averaged the second-most rebounds in the league per game at 11.9, and hit 12+ in 13 of 19 games dating back to March 1, and hit at least 14 in 7 of those, showing his even higher ceiling.
He hit 12 and 15 rebounds in two meetings with the Hawks this season, including a matchup in the final week.
New York allowed the third-fewest opponent rebounds, while Atlanta ranked 21st, and even worse vs. Centers.
4. Kevin Durant over 24.5 points (-112)
Game: Lakers vs. Rockets
Tip: 8:30 PM ET
In the final game of the night, we turn to the second-highest projected scorer across all four games, Kevin Durant.
KD projects for 27.9 points, signaling an opportunity to bet on KD at multiple lines. His standard points is set at 24.5 and -112 odds, but our model projects him all the up to over 26.5 at a 53.0% probability, which gives an even bigger edge due to the plus money value, and any line between those would be a play from our model.
After averaging 26.0 PPG this season, KD is listed as questionable with a right knee contusion ahead of Saturday's game, however the line of -5.5 suggest he's in line to play.
NBA parlay at +1249 odds
For a bigger payout at higher risk, consider a parlay of these four props at +1249 odds, which you can boost with a number of promos across the top sportsbooks.
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| Raptors +8 | -104 |
| Nikola Jokic o9.5 AST | -106 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns 12+ REB | -115 |
| Kevin Durant o24.5 PTS | -112 |
Dimers' NBA betting resources for the 2026 playoffs
- NBA Game Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every NBA matchup, every day.
- NBA Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game.
- NBA Finals Odds: Who will win the championship?
- Best NBA Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
- NBA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league
Responsible gambling
Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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