NBA props today: Why you should ladder Nikola Jokic's assists in Game 4

Today's sportsbetting calendar features a four-game lineup of NBA Playoff matchups, and utilizing our best NBA Props, we've found a top play on Novig to take on Nikola Jokic in the Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 4.

Backed by the Dimers data and a favorable market price, this play on Jokic offers not only value at its standard line, but also on an alternate for those looking to back the Joker for a props ladder.

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Nikola Jokic props ladder play today, Saturday, April 25

Nikola Jokic over 9.5 assists

Game: Nuggets vs. Timberwolves

Tip off: 8:30 PM ET

The Nuggets find themselves on the wrong end of a 2-1 series deficit and will be desperate for a win before this series returns to their home court.

Unsurprisingly, their two losses have come with Jokic, the NBA's regular-season leader in assists and triple doubles failing to record double-digit dimes. Their best chance to win is to get back to what they do best, with their big man dishing high quality passes rather than chucking up 10 threes.

The Dimers model predicts a win for the Nuggets, with a massive 65.4% probability that Jokic clears his standard line of 9.5 assists, giving us a favorable edge at his odds of -111 on Novig, as his fair odds would be -190.

Dimers' assist projection for Nikola Jokic in Game 4.

Why ladder Jokic's assists?

Beyond the value on Jokic to clear 9.5 assists, his projection of 12.4 puts him in play to clear multiple assist props, all the way up to 12+ backed by our model, or beyond for those looking at even longer odds.

The odds for Jokic to go over 11.5 assists at Novig are +268, the best at the time of publishing, and they're as low as +215 on some other books, highlighting a major discrepancy and a prop worth taking based on the data.

Over 10.5 makes a strong play as well for a line right in the middle, but you'll have to shop around to find the best line.

Jokic's assist props on Novig.

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