Pelicans vs. Rockets prediction: Houston to win, Kevin Durant projected for big game in Sunday's NBA matchup [1/18/2026]

NBA action continues on Sunday at 7:00 PM ET as the New Orleans Pelicans face off with the favored Houston Rockets at Toyota Center.

Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury reports, Dimers' advanced NBA model projects the Rockets as the most likely winner of the Pelicans vs. Rockets game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Rockets lineup will feature players like Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson, while the Pelicans will rely on Trey Murphy, Zion Williamson and Saddiq Bey.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Pelicans vs. Rockets prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NBA matchup between the Pelicans and Rockets 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Rockets an 84% chance of beating the Pelicans. Our predicted final score has the Rockets winning 121-109.

According to our model, the Pelicans (+13.5) have a 57% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 232.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Pelicans vs. Rockets odds

We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Pelicans vs. Rockets picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

According to our best NBA bets for Sunday, the top play to make on this game is Pelicans +13.5 at the spread.

Pelicans vs. Rockets player props

NBA prop bets are an exciting way to wager on Sunday's Pelicans vs. Rockets game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Toyota Center.

Trey Murphy is expected to lead the Pelicans with 24 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists, while Kevin Durant is projected to have 29 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists for the Rockets.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Pelicans prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Pelicans are:

Rockets prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Rockets:

Pelicans vs. Rockets game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's matchup between the Rockets and Pelicans at Toyota Center is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Houston Rockets
• Date: Sunday, January 18, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Toyota Center

Conclusion

We predict the Rockets, with an 84% win probability, will likely beat the Pelicans on Sunday, with Kevin Durant projected for a game-high 51 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Pelicans vs. Rockets insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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