Pelicans vs. Timberwolves prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Sunday's NBA matchup [4/12/2026]

NBA action continues on Sunday at 8:30 PM ET as the New Orleans Pelicans take on the Minnesota Timberwolves at Target Center.

Based on updated simulations and today’s injury news, Dimers' proven NBA model projects the Timberwolves as the most likely winner of the Pelicans vs. Timberwolves game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Timberwolves lineup will feature players like Terrence Shannon, Joan Beringer and Julian Phillips, while the Pelicans will be led by Jeremiah Fears, Jordan Poole and Derik Queen.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Pelicans vs. Wolves prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NBA game between the Pelicans and Timberwolves, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Timberwolves a 65% chance of beating the Pelicans. Our predicted final score has the Timberwolves winning 120-115.

According to our model, the Pelicans (+3.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the 238.5-point over/under has a 53% chance of staying under.

Pelicans vs. Timberwolves odds

We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Pelicans	Timberwolves
Spread	+3.5 (-105)	-3.5 (-112)
Moneyline	+150	-166
Total	o238.5 (-112)	u238.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Pelicans vs. Timberwolves picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Pelicans +3.5	-105
Moneyline	Timberwolves	-166
Total	Under 238.5	-105

According to our best NBA bets for Sunday, the top play to make on this game is Timberwolves to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Pelicans vs. Timberwolves player props

NBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on Sunday's New Orleans vs. Minnesota game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Target Center.

Jeremiah Fears is expected to lead the Pelicans with 21 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists, while Terrence Shannon is projected to have 16 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists for the Timberwolves.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Pelicans prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Pelicans are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Jeremiah Fears	21	6	5	2	44
Jordan Poole	18	3	5	3	34
Derik Queen	15	10	6	1	45
Micah Peavy	10	5	3	1	26
Jordan Hawkins	9	4	2	2	20

Timberwolves prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Timberwolves:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
T. Shannon	16	4	2	2	29
Joan Beringer	15	8	1	0	35
Julian Phillips	12	5	1	2	25
Jaylen Clark	12	5	2	1	27
Zyon Pullin	11	3	3	2	24

Pelicans vs. Wolves game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's game between the Timberwolves and Pelicans at Target Center is scheduled to start at 8:30 PM ET.

• Who: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
• Date: Sunday, April 12, 2026
• Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30PM PT
• Venue: Target Center

Conclusion

We predict the Timberwolves, with a 65% win probability, will likely beat the Pelicans in Sunday's NBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.