Jun 22, 2026
WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, June 22, 2026
Read Article Liberty vs. Sparks prediction: New York favored to win Sunday's WNBA matchup [6/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get New York Liberty vs Los Angeles Sparks predictions for WNBA Sunday.
WNBA action continues on Sunday at 8:00 PM ET as the New York Liberty take on the Los Angeles Sparks at Crypto.com Arena.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Liberty as the most likely winner of the Liberty vs. Sparks game.
The Sparks, powered by Nneka Ogwumike, Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby, will face off against the Liberty, whose lineup includes Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Liberty vs. Sparks prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's WNBA game between the Liberty and Sparks, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Liberty a 73.4% chance of defeating the Sparks.
According to our model, the Liberty (-5.5) have a 54.6% chance of covering the spread, while the 181.5-point over/under has a 65.0% chance of staying under,.
Liberty vs. Sparks odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Liberty | Sparks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -5.5 (-105) | +5.5 (-108) |
| Moneyline | -215 | +180 |
| Total | o181.5 (-110) | u181.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Liberty vs. Sparks picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Liberty -5.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Liberty | -215 |
| Total | Under 181.5 | -108 |
According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 181.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Liberty vs. Sparks player props
WNBA player props are a popular way to wager on Sunday's New York vs. Los Angeles game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Crypto.com Arena.
Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 20 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists, while Nneka Ogwumike is projected to have 19 points, 7 rebounds and 2 assists for the Sparks.
When evaluating the first basket market, Kelsey Plum is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 15.7% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Liberty prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 20 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 44 |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 16 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 35 |
| Jonquel Jones | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 35 |
| Satou Sabally | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| Marine Johannes | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 |
Sparks prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sparks:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nneka Ogwumike | 19 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 36 |
| Kelsey Plum | 18 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 34 |
| Dearica Hamby | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 34 |
| Ariel Atkins | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 27 |
| Rae Burrell | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
Liberty vs. Sparks game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's matchup between the Sparks and Liberty at Crypto.com Arena is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks
- Date: Sunday, June 21, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Liberty, with a 73.4% win probability, will likely beat the Sparks in Sunday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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