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Mets vs. Rockies prediction: Why Mets are favored to win Tuesday's MLB matchup [5/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies predictions for MLB Tuesday.
The Colorado Rockies will take on the New York Mets in MLB action at Coors Field on Tuesday, beginning at 8:40 PM ET.
The Rockies will have Michael Lorenzen (2-3, 6.09 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Mets are going with Freddy Peralta (1-3, 3.52 ERA).
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Mets as the most likely winner of the Mets vs. Rockies game.
This article offers a closer look at Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Rockies prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Rockies, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Mets a 61% chance of defeating the Rockies.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Mets and Rockies each have a 50% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 9.5 runs has a 53% chance of going over.
Mets vs. Rockies odds [5/5/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (-105) | +1.5 (-114) |
| Moneyline | -160 | +140 |
| Total | o9.5 (-108) | u9.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Rockies picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets -1.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Mets | -160 |
| Total | Over 9.5 | -108 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Rockies game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's MLB action between the Rockies and Mets at Coors Field is scheduled to commence at 8:40 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies
- Date: Tuesday, May 5, 2026
- Time: 8:40 PM ET/5:40PM PT
- Venue: Coors Field
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Rockies in Tuesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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