Mets vs. Phillies prediction: Why Philadelphia is favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [7/18/2026]
Get New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions for MLB Saturday.
The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets are scheduled to meet in MLB action at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday, starting at 4:05 PM ET.
The Phillies will start Jesús Luzardo (8-4, 3.51 ERA), pitting him against Sean Manaea (2-4, 4.56 ERA) for the Mets.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Phillies as the most likely winner of the Mets vs. Phillies game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Phillies prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model gives the Phillies a 56.7% chance of defeating the Mets.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 60.8% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 52.6% chance of going over,.
Mets vs. Phillies odds [7/18/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-133) | -1.5 (+130) |
| Moneyline | +156 | -160 |
| Total | o8.5 (-108) | u8.5 (+104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Phillies picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets +1.5 | -133 |
| Moneyline | Mets | +156 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -108 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Phillies game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's MLB matchup between the Phillies and Mets at Citizens Bank Park is scheduled to start at 4:05 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- Date: Saturday, July 18, 2026
- Time: 4:05 PM ET/1:05PM PT
- Venue: Citizens Bank Park
Conclusion
We predict the Phillies, with a 56.7% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Saturday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
