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Thunder vs. Rockets prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Thursday's NBA matchup [1/15/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets predictions for NBA Thursday.
The Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder are scheduled to meet in NBA action at Toyota Center on Thursday, starting at 7:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury reports, Dimers' advanced NBA model projects the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Thunder vs. Rockets game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Rockets lineup will feature players like Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson, while the Thunder will rely on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Thunder vs. Rockets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NBA matchup between the Thunder and Rockets 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Thunder a 63% chance of defeating the Rockets. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 113-109.
According to our model, the Rockets (+4.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the 221.5-point over/under has a 51% chance of going over.
Thunder vs. Rockets odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Thunder | Rockets |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -4.5 (-106) | +4.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -175 | +150 |
| Total | o221.5 (-110) | u221.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Thunder vs. Rockets picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Rockets +4.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Thunder | -175 |
| Total | Over 221.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Thursday, the top play to make on this game is Rockets +4.5 at the spread.
Thunder vs. Rockets player props
NBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on the Thunder vs. Rockets game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Toyota Center.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to lead the Thunder with 29 points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists, while Kevin Durant is projected to have 25 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists for the Rockets.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Thunder prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Thunder are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 29 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 50 |
| Jalen Williams | 18 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 37 |
| Chet Holmgren | 16 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 34 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 26 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 17 |
Rockets prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Rockets:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 25 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 45 |
| Alperen Sengun | 19 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 45 |
| Amen Thompson | 18 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 41 |
| Jabari Smith | 15 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 31 |
| Reed Sheppard | 11 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 24 |
Thunder vs. Rockets game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's action between the Rockets and Thunder at Toyota Center is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets
- Date: Thursday, January 15, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Toyota Center
Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat the Rockets on Thursday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 50 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Thunder vs. Rockets insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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