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Thunder vs. Lakers prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Game 4 [2026 NBA Playoffs]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers predictions for NBA Playoffs Monday.
The Los Angeles Lakers and Oklahoma City Thunder will meet in Game 4 of their NBA Playoffs series at Crypto.com Arena on Monday, with tipoff at 10:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury updates, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Thunder vs. Lakers Game 4 matchup.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Lakers lineup will feature players like Austin Reaves, LeBron James and Rui Hachimura, while the Thunder will look to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Ajay Mitchell.
Luka Doncic will miss the game though with the Slovenian star out for this one.
This article offers further insights into Monday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Thunder vs. Lakers prediction: Who will win Game 4?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's NBA Playoffs matchup between the Thunder and Lakers, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Thunder an 82% chance of beating the Lakers in Game 4 of the series. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 112-102.
According to our model, the Lakers (+11.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 215.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Thunder vs. Lakers Game 4 odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Thunder | Lakers |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -11.5 (-108) | +11.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -575 | +450 |
| Total | o215.5 (-105) | u215.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Thunder vs. Lakers picks and best bet for Game 4
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lakers +11.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Lakers | +450 |
| Total | Over 215.5 | -105 |
According to our best NBA bets for Monday, the top play to make on this game is Lakers +11.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Thunder vs. Lakers Game 4 player props
NBA player props are an exciting way to wager on the Oklahoma City vs. LA Lakers game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Crypto.com Arena.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to lead the Thunder with 29 points, 4 rebounds and 7 assists, while Austin Reaves is projected to have 22 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists for the Lakers.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Thunder prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Thunder are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 29 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 51 |
| Chet Holmgren | 17 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 38 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 16 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 31 |
| I. Hartenstein | 10 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 33 |
| Cason Wallace | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
Lakers prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Lakers:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Reaves | 22 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 43 |
| LeBron James | 22 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 49 |
| Rui Hachimura | 15 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 27 |
| Marcus Smart | 10 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 26 |
| Luke Kennard | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 22 |
Thunder vs. Lakers Game 4 updates and essential details
Monday's Game 4 between the Lakers and Thunder in the NBA Playoffs is scheduled to commence at 10:30 PM ET.
- Who: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Lakers
- Date: Monday, May 11, 2026
- Time: 10:30 PM ET/7:30PM PT
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena
- NBA Playoffs bracket: Updated NBA Playoffs bracket and schedule
The NBA Playoffs is an annual elimination tournament held to decide the league's champion.
A total of 16 teams, including the Thunder and Lakers, reached the 2026 NBA Playoffs, which includes four rounds: the First Round, Conference Semifinals, Conference Finals, and NBA Finals.
Each round is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins advancing to the next round until a champion is crowned.
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Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with an 82% win probability, will likely beat the Lakers in Monday's NBA playoffs matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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