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Thunder vs. Grizzlies prediction: Why Oklahoma City is favored to win Friday's NBA matchup [1/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies predictions for NBA Friday.
The Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder will lock horns in NBA action at FedExForum on Friday, with tipoff at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury updates, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Thunder vs. Grizzlies game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Grizzlies lineup will feature players like Jaren Jackson, Cam Spencer and Santi Aldama, while the Thunder will rely on Jalen Williams, Ajay Mitchell and Aaron Wiggins.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Thunder vs. Grizzlies prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's NBA game between the Thunder and Grizzlies 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Thunder a 66% chance of beating the Grizzlies. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 116-111.
According to our model, the Grizzlies (+5.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the 229.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.
Thunder vs. Grizzlies odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Thunder | Grizzlies |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -5.5 (-114) | +5.5 (-102) |
| Moneyline | -218 | +184 |
| Total | o229.5 (-108) | u229.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Thunder vs. Grizzlies picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Grizzlies +5.5 | -102 |
| Moneyline | Grizzlies | +184 |
| Total | Under 229.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Friday, the top play to make on this game is Grizzlies +5.5 at the spread.
Thunder vs. Grizzlies player props
NBA prop bets are an enjoyable way to wager on Friday's Thunder vs. Grizzlies matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at FedExForum.
Jalen Williams is expected to lead the Thunder with 22 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists, while Jaren Jackson is projected to have 18 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists for the Grizzlies.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Thunder prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Thunder are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Williams | 22 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 44 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 18 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 38 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 14 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 29 |
| Isaiah Joe | 11 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 21 |
| Branden Carlson | 10 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 24 |
Grizzlies prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Grizzlies:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaren Jackson | 18 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 34 |
| Cam Spencer | 14 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 32 |
| Santi Aldama | 14 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 31 |
| Cedric Coward | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 31 |
| Jaylen Wells | 13 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 |
Thunder vs. Grizzlies game-day updates and essential details
Friday's game between the Grizzlies and Thunder at FedExForum is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies
- Date: Friday, January 9, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: FedExForum
Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with a 66% win probability, will likely beat the Grizzlies on Friday, with Jalen Williams projected for a game-high 44 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Thunder vs. Grizzlies insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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