Thunder vs. Heat prediction: Why Oklahoma City is favored to win Saturday's NBA matchup [1/17/2026]

The Miami Heat will square off with the favored Oklahoma City Thunder in NBA action at Kaseya Center on Saturday, starting at 8:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations and today’s injury news, Dimers' advanced NBA model projects the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Thunder vs. Heat game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Heat lineup will feature players like Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo and Andrew Wiggins, while the Thunder will look to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren.

This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Thunder vs. Heat prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NBA matchup between the Thunder and Heat 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Thunder a 78% chance of beating the Heat. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 120-111.

According to our model, the Heat (+10.5) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the 235.5-point over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.

Thunder vs. Heat odds

We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Thunder	Heat
Spread	-10.5 (-114)	+10.5 (-106)
Moneyline	-460	+390
Total	o235.5 (-105)	u235.5 (-114)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Thunder vs. Heat picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Heat +10.5	-106
Moneyline	Heat	+390
Total	Under 235.5	-114

According to our best NBA bets for Saturday, the top play to make on this game is Heat +10.5 at the spread.

Thunder vs. Heat player props

Looking for Thunder vs. Heat NBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Kaseya Center.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to lead the Thunder with 31 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists, while Norman Powell is projected to have 21 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists for the Heat.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Thunder prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Thunder are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	31	5	7	2	53
Jalen Williams	19	5	6	1	39
Chet Holmgren	18	9	1	1	38
Ajay Mitchell	13	4	4	1	28
Aaron Wiggins	9	4	2	2	19

Heat prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Heat:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Norman Powell	21	4	3	3	35
Bam Adebayo	16	9	3	2	37
Andrew Wiggins	16	5	3	2	32
Pelle Larsson	11	4	4	1	25
Nikola Jovic	10	4	3	2	24

Thunder vs. Heat game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's matchup between the Heat and Thunder at Kaseya Center is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Miami Heat
• Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Kaseya Center

Conclusion

We predict the Thunder, with a 78% win probability, will likely beat the Heat on Saturday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 53 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Thunder vs. Heat insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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