Thunder vs. Suns prediction: Why Oklahoma City is favored to win Saturday's NBA matchup [4/25/2026]

NBA action continues on Saturday at 3:30 PM ET as the Oklahoma City Thunder square off with the Phoenix Suns in the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Based on the latest simulation results and today’s injury updates, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Thunder vs. Suns game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Suns lineup will feature players like Devin Booker, Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks, while the Thunder will rely on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Ajay Mitchell.

This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Thunder vs. Suns prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NBA Playoffs matchup between the Thunder and Suns, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Thunder a 76% chance of defeating the Suns. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 110-102.

According to our model, the Suns (+8.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the 211.5-point over/under has a 54% chance of going over.

Thunder vs. Suns odds

We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Thunder vs. Suns picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

According to our best NBA bets for Saturday, the top play to make on this game is Suns +8.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Thunder vs. Suns player props

NBA player props are a popular way to wager on the Oklahoma City vs. Phoenix matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to lead the Thunder with 31 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists, while Devin Booker is projected to have 26 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists for the Suns.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Thunder prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Thunder are:

Suns prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Suns:

Thunder vs. Suns game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's action between the Suns and Thunder in the NBA Playoffs is scheduled to start at 3:30 PM ET.

• Who: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns
• Date: Saturday, April 25, 2026
• Time: 3:30 PM ET/12:30PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
• NBA Playoffs bracket: Updated NBA Playoffs bracket and schedule

The NBA Playoffs is an annual elimination tournament held to determine the league's champion.

Sixteen teams, including the Thunder and Suns, reached the NBA Playoffs 2026, which includes four rounds: the First Round, Conference Semifinals, Conference Finals, and NBA Finals.

Each round is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins progressing to the next round until a champion is crowned.

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Conclusion

We predict the Thunder, with a 76% win probability, will likely beat the Suns in Saturday's NBA playoffs matchup.

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