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Thunder vs. Suns prediction: Why Oklahoma City is favored to win Wednesday's NBA matchup [2/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns predictions for NBA Wednesday.
NBA action continues on Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET as the favored Oklahoma City Thunder lock horns with the Phoenix Suns at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury reports, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Thunder vs. Suns game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Suns lineup will feature players like Dillon Brooks, Collin Gillespie and Jordan Goodwin, while the Thunder will look to Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Isaiah Joe.
This article offers further insights into Wednesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Thunder vs. Suns prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's NBA game between the Thunder and Suns 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Thunder a 73% chance of defeating the Suns. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 110-103.
According to our model, the Suns (+7.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 211.5 points has a 54% chance of going over.
Thunder vs. Suns odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Thunder | Suns |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -7.5 (-115) | +7.5 (-102) |
| Moneyline | -278 | +235 |
| Total | o211.5 (-110) | u211.5 (-106) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Thunder vs. Suns picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Suns +7.5 | -102 |
| Moneyline | Thunder | -278 |
| Total | Over 211.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Wednesday, the top play to make on this game is Suns +7.5 at the spread.
Thunder vs. Suns player props
NBA player props are a popular way to wager on the Oklahoma City vs. Phoenix game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Chet Holmgren is expected to lead the Thunder with 18 points, 9 rebounds and 2 assists, while Dillon Brooks is projected to have 21 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists for the Suns.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Thunder prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Thunder are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chet Holmgren | 18 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 38 |
| Jalen Williams | 17 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 33 |
| Isaiah Joe | 12 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
| Cason Wallace | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
| I. Hartenstein | 9 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 29 |
Suns prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Suns:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Brooks | 21 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 35 |
| C. Gillespie | 16 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 36 |
| Jordan Goodwin | 12 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 29 |
| Royce O'Neale | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 27 |
| Mark Williams | 11 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 27 |
Thunder vs. Suns game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's game between the Suns and Thunder at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to begin at 9:00 PM ET.
- Who: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns
- Date: Wednesday, February 11, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with a 73% win probability, will likely beat the Suns on Wednesday, with Chet Holmgren projected for a game-high 38 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Thunder vs. Suns insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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