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Phillies vs. Marlins prediction: Why Miami is favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [5/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins predictions for MLB Monday.
MLB action continues on Monday at 6:40 PM ET as the Philadelphia Phillies lock horns with the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park.
Janson Junk (2-2, 3.00 ERA) will start on the mound for the Marlins, up against Aaron Nola (1-3, 6.03 ERA) for the Phillies.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Marlins a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Phillies.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's Phillies vs. Marlins matchup, including best bets and picks.
Phillies vs. Marlins prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's MLB game between the Phillies and Marlins, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Marlins a 52% chance of beating the Phillies.
According to our model, the Marlins (+1.5) have a 64% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 52% chance of staying under.
Phillies vs. Marlins odds [5/4/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Phillies | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+141) | +1.5 (-166) |
| Moneyline | -115 | +100 |
| Total | o8.5 (-115) | u8.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Phillies vs. Marlins picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Marlins +1.5 | -166 |
| Moneyline | Marlins | +100 |
| Total | Under 8.5 | -105 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Marlins +1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Phillies vs. Marlins game-day updates and essential details
Monday's MLB game between the Marlins and Phillies at loanDepot park is scheduled to start at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
- Date: Monday, May 4, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: loanDepot park
Conclusion
We predict the Marlins, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Phillies in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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