May 20, 2026
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Read Article Phillies vs. Pirates prediction: Why Philadelphia is favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [5/16/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates predictions for MLB Saturday.
The Pittsburgh Pirates will take on the Philadelphia Phillies in MLB action at PNC Park on Saturday, beginning at 4:05 PM ET.
The Pirates will send Bubba Chandler (1-4, 4.62 ERA) to the mound, pitting him against Cristopher Sánchez (4-2, 2.11 ERA) for the Phillies.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model predicts the Phillies as the most likely winner of the Phillies vs. Pirates game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Phillies vs. Pirates prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's MLB game between the Phillies and Pirates, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Phillies a 59% chance of beating the Pirates.
According to our model, the Pirates (+1.5) have a 52% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 51% chance of going over.
Phillies vs. Pirates odds [5/16/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Phillies | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (-103) | +1.5 (-111) |
| Moneyline | -171 | +145 |
| Total | o8.5 (-102) | u8.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Phillies vs. Pirates picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Pirates +1.5 | -111 |
| Moneyline | Pirates | +145 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -102 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Phillies vs. Pirates game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's MLB action between the Pirates and Phillies at PNC Park is scheduled to start at 4:05 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date: Saturday, May 16, 2026
- Time: 4:05 PM ET/1:05PM PT
- Venue: PNC Park
Conclusion
We predict the Phillies, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Pirates in Saturday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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