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Philadelphia Union vs. New York City prediction, odds, MLS Cup conference finals picks [11/23/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Philadelphia Union vs New York City predictions for MLS Cup Sunday.
Philadelphia will square off with NY City in the MLS Cup conference finals at Subaru Park on Sunday, beginning at 7:45PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLS model predicts Philadelphia as the most likely winner of the Philadelphia vs. NY City game.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Philadelphia Union vs. New York City prediction: Who will win MLS Cup conference finals matchup?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's MLS game between Philadelphia and NY City 10,000 times as part of our MLS predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model suggests a 50.3% chance of Philadelphia winning, a 24.3% chance for NY City, and a 25.4% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 53% chance of staying under, according to our model.
Philadelphia Union vs. New York City - MLS Cup conference finals odds
We have sourced the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Philadelphia | NY City | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -130 | +380 | +260 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| +100 | -122 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Philadelphia Union vs. New York City picks and best bet for MLS Cup conference finals
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | NY City | +380 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | -122 |
According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is NY City to win.
Philadelphia Union vs. New York City: Correct score predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| PHI 1-1 NYC | 12.1% |
| PHI 1-0 NYC | 12.1% |
| PHI 2-1 NYC | 9.4% |
These predictions are based on each team's average score after 10,000 simulations, meaning the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.
Philadelphia Union vs. New York City MLS Cup conference finals updates and essential details
Sunday's game between Philadelphia and NY City in MLS at Subaru Park is scheduled to start at 7:45PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Union vs. New York City
- Date: Sunday, November 23, 2025
- Time: 7:45PM ET/4:45PM PT
- Venue: Subaru Park
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Conclusion
According to our computer model, Philadelphia has a 50.3% win probability on Sunday, NY City has a 24.3% win probability, and there is a 25.4% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Philadelphia vs. NY City insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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