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Suns vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Sunday's NBA matchup [4/12/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder predictions for NBA Sunday.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Phoenix Suns are scheduled to meet in NBA action at Paycom Center on Sunday, with tipoff at 8:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury reports, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Suns vs. Thunder game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature players like Branden Carlson, Jared McCain and Kenrich Williams, while the Suns will be led by Jalen Green, Mark Williams and Jamaree Bouyea.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Suns vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NBA matchup between the Suns and Thunder, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Thunder a 74% chance of defeating the Suns. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 110-102.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Suns and Thunder each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 212.5 points has a 51% chance of going over.
Suns vs. Thunder odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Suns | Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +7.5 (-105) | -7.5 (-112) |
| Moneyline | +265 | -320 |
| Total | o212.5 (-110) | u212.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Suns vs. Thunder picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Suns +7.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Suns | +265 |
| Total | Over 212.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Sunday, the top play to make on this game is Suns +7.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Suns vs. Thunder player props
Looking for Phoenix vs. Oklahoma City NBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.
Jalen Green is expected to lead the Suns with 12 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists, while Branden Carlson is projected to have 16 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists for the Thunder.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Suns prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Suns are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Green | 12 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| Mark Williams | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 |
| Jamaree Bouyea | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 22 |
| Rasheer Fleming | 9 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 |
| C. Gillespie | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
Thunder prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Branden Carlson | 16 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 38 |
| Jared McCain | 15 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 26 |
| K. Williams | 13 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 30 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 11 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 |
| Nikola Topic | 10 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 34 |
Suns vs. Thunder game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's game between the Thunder and Suns at Paycom Center is scheduled to start at 8:30 PM ET.
- Who: Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Date: Sunday, April 12, 2026
- Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30PM PT
- Venue: Paycom Center
Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with a 74% win probability, will likely beat the Suns in Sunday's NBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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