Suns vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Game 1 [2026 NBA Playoffs]

The Oklahoma City Thunder will take on the Phoenix Suns in Game 1of their 2026 NBA Playoffs series at Paycom Center on Sunday, beginning at 3:30 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury reports, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Suns vs. Thunder Game 1 matchup.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, while the Suns will rely on Devin Booker, Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks.

This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Suns vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win Game 1?

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NBA Playoffs game between the Suns and Thunder, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Thunder an 89% chance of defeating the Suns in Game 1 of the series. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 115-100.

According to our model, the Suns (+16.5) have a 57% chance of covering the spread, while the 216-point over/under has a 51% chance of going over.

Suns vs. Thunder Game 1 odds

We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Suns	Thunder
Spread	+16.5 (-105)	-16.5 (-115)
Moneyline	+1100	-1450
Total	o216 (-110)	u216 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Suns vs. Thunder picks and best bet for Game 1

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Suns +16.5	-105
Moneyline	Suns	+1100
Total	Over 216	-110

According to our best NBA bets for Sunday, the top play to make on this game is Suns +16.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Suns vs. Thunder Game 1 player props

NBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on the Suns vs. Thunder matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.

Devin Booker is expected to lead the Suns with 26 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 30 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists for the Thunder.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Suns prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Suns are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Devin Booker	26	5	6	2	45
Jalen Green	20	5	4	2	38
Dillon Brooks	17	4	2	2	29
Grayson Allen	10	4	3	2	24
Jordan Goodwin	9	6	2	2	26

Thunder prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	30	5	6	2	51
Jalen Williams	18	5	5	1	36
Chet Holmgren	17	9	2	1	37
Ajay Mitchell	11	3	3	1	22
I. Hartenstein	8	8	3	0	27

Suns vs. Thunder Game 1 updates and essential details

Sunday's Game 1 between the Thunder and Suns in the NBA Playoffs is scheduled to begin at 3:30 PM ET.

• Who: Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• Date: Sunday, April 19, 2026
• Time: 3:30 PM ET/12:30PM PT
• Venue: Paycom Center
• NBA Playoffs bracket: Updated NBA Playoffs bracket and schedule

The NBA Playoffs is an annual postseason tournament held to decide the league's champion.

Sixteen teams, including the Suns and Thunder, made the 2026 NBA Playoffs, which includes four rounds: the First Round, Conference Semifinals, Conference Finals, and NBA Finals.

Each round is played as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins advancing to the next round until a champion is crowned.

Conclusion

We predict the Thunder, with an 89% win probability, will likely beat the Suns in Sunday's NBA playoffs matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.