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Read Article Pirates vs. Blue Jays prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [5/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays predictions for MLB Friday.
The Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates in MLB action at Rogers Centre on Friday, beginning at 7:07 PM ET.
Kevin Gausman (3-3, 3.45 ERA) will start for the Blue Jays, while the Pirates will counter with Bubba Chandler (1-5, 5.14 ERA).
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Blue Jays as the most likely winner of the Pirates vs. Blue Jays game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Pirates vs. Blue Jays prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's MLB matchup between the Pirates and Blue Jays, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Blue Jays a 59% chance of beating the Pirates.
According to our model, the Pirates (+1.5) have a 58% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of eight runs has a 53% chance of going over.
Pirates vs. Blue Jays odds [5/22/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Pirates | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-155) | -1.5 (+132) |
| Moneyline | +139 | -164 |
| Total | o8 (-108) | u8 (-111) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Pirates vs. Blue Jays picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Blue Jays -1.5 | +132 |
| Moneyline | Pirates | +139 |
| Total | Over 8 | -108 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Pirates vs. Blue Jays game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB action between the Blue Jays and Pirates at Rogers Centre is scheduled to start at 7:07 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays
- Date: Friday, May 22, 2026
- Time: 7:07 PM ET/4:07PM PT
- Venue: Rogers Centre
Conclusion
We predict the Blue Jays, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Pirates in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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