Rayo Vallecano vs. Girona prediction, odds, La Liga picks [5/11/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's La Liga match between Rayo Vallecano and Girona, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model indicates a 39.7% chance of Rayo Vallecano winning, a 34.6% chance for Girona, and a 25.8% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 51% chance of going over, according to our model.

Rayo Vallecano vs. Girona odds

We have researched the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Rayo Vallecano	Girona	Draw
+145	+200	+230

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-125	-110

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Rayo Vallecano vs. Girona picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Girona	+200
Total Goals	Under 2.5	-110

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Girona to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Rayo Vallecano vs. Girona: Correct score and BTTS predictions

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
RAY 1-1 GIR	12.2%
RAY 1-0 GIR	9.4%
RAY 0-1 GIR	8.7%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 54.8% chance of both Rayo Vallecano and Girona finding the net and a 45.2% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.

Rayo Vallecano vs. Girona game-day updates and essential details

Monday's La Liga game between Rayo Vallecano and Girona at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas is scheduled to begin in the USA at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Rayo Vallecano vs. Girona
• Date: Monday, May 11, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Rayo Vallecano has a 39.7% win probability on Monday, Girona has a 34.6% win probability, and there is a 25.8% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.