Spurs vs. Mavericks prediction: San Antonio to win, Victor Wembanyama projected for big game in Thursday's NBA matchup [2/5/2026]

NBA action continues on Thursday at 8:30 PM ET as the San Antonio Spurs lock horns with the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center.

Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury reports, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Spurs as the most likely winner of the Spurs vs. Mavericks game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Mavericks lineup will feature stars like Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall and Max Christie, while the Spurs will be led by Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Spurs vs. Mavs prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NBA matchup between the Spurs and Mavericks 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Spurs a 74% chance of defeating the Mavericks. Our predicted final score has the Spurs winning 117-110.

According to our model, the Mavericks (+7.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 230.5 points has a 53% chance of staying under.

Spurs vs. Mavericks odds

We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Spurs vs. Mavericks picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

According to our best NBA bets for Thursday, the top play to make on this game is Mavericks +7.5 at the spread.

Spurs vs. Mavericks player props

NBA player props are a popular way to wager on Thursday's Spurs vs. Mavericks game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at American Airlines Center.

Victor Wembanyama is expected to lead the Spurs with 24 points, 11 rebounds and 3 assists, while Cooper Flagg is projected to have 23 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists for the Mavericks.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Spurs prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Spurs are:

Mavericks prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mavericks:

Spurs vs. Mavs game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's game between the Mavericks and Spurs at American Airlines Center is scheduled to start at 8:30 PM ET.

• Who: San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks
• Date: Thursday, February 5, 2026
• Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30PM PT
• Venue: American Airlines Center

Conclusion

We predict the Spurs, with a 74% win probability, will likely beat the Mavericks on Thursday, with Victor Wembanyama projected for a game-high 51 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Spurs vs. Mavericks insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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