Spurs vs. Heat prediction: San Antonio to win, Victor Wembanyama projected for big game in Monday's NBA matchup [3/23/2026]

The Miami Heat will take on the San Antonio Spurs in NBA action at Kaseya Center on Monday, commencing at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury updates, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Spurs as the most likely winner of the Spurs vs. Heat game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Heat lineup will feature stars like Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Norman Powell, while the Spurs will rely on Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle.

This article offers a closer look at Monday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Spurs vs. Heat prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's NBA game between the Spurs and Heat 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Spurs a 63% chance of defeating the Heat. Our predicted final score has the Spurs winning 123-119.

According to our model, the bookies have got it right, and the Spurs and Heat each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 244 points has a 54% chance of staying under.

Spurs vs. Heat odds

We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Spurs	Heat
Spread	-3.5 (-102)	+3.5 (-105)
Moneyline	-155	+140
Total	o244 (-110)	u244 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Spurs vs. Heat picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Spurs -3.5	-102
Moneyline	Spurs	-155
Total	Under 244	-110

According to our best NBA bets for Monday, the top play to make on this game is Spurs to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Spurs vs. Heat player props

Looking for Spurs vs. Heat NBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Kaseya Center.

Victor Wembanyama is expected to lead the Spurs with 28 points, 12 rebounds and 4 assists, while Bam Adebayo is projected to have 22 points, 11 rebounds and 4 assists for the Heat.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Spurs prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Spurs are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
V. Wembanyama	28	12	4	2	60
De'Aaron Fox	19	4	7	2	38
Stephon Castle	17	5	8	1	40
Devin Vassell	14	4	3	2	27
Keldon Johnson	12	4	1	1	21

Heat prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Heat:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Bam Adebayo	22	11	4	2	47
Tyler Herro	20	5	4	2	37
Norman Powell	20	4	3	2	33
Jaime Jaquez	14	4	5	1	30
Andrew Wiggins	14	5	3	2	29

Spurs vs. Heat game-day updates and essential details

Monday's game between the Heat and Spurs at Kaseya Center is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat
• Date: Monday, March 23, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Kaseya Center

Conclusion

We predict the Spurs, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat the Heat on Monday, with Victor Wembanyama projected for a game-high 60 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Spurs vs. Heat insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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