May 19, 2026
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Read Article Spurs vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Monday's NBA matchup [5/18/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder predictions for NBA Playoffs Monday.
The Oklahoma City Thunder will take on the San Antonio Spurs in the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Paycom Center on Monday, starting at 8:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury updates, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Spurs vs. Thunder game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, while the Spurs will rely on Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and De'Aaron Fox.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Spurs vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's NBA Playoffs matchup between the Spurs and Thunder, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Thunder a 71% chance of defeating the Spurs. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 113-106.
According to our model, the Spurs (+6.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 218.5 points has a 52% chance of going over.
Spurs vs. Thunder odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Spurs | Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +6.5 (-105) | -6.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | +215 | -250 |
| Total | o218.5 (-115) | u218.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Spurs vs. Thunder picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Spurs +6.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Thunder | -250 |
| Total | Over 218.5 | -115 |
According to our best NBA bets for Monday, the top play to make on this game is Spurs +6.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Spurs vs. Thunder player props
NBA prop bets are an exciting way to wager on Monday's Spurs vs. Thunder matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.
Victor Wembanyama is expected to lead the Spurs with 27 points, 12 rebounds and 3 assists, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 30 points, 4 rebounds and 7 assists for the Thunder.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Spurs prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Spurs are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Wembanyama | 27 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 59 |
| Stephon Castle | 18 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 41 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 17 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 35 |
| Devin Vassell | 13 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 27 |
| Dylan Harper | 13 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 28 |
Thunder prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 30 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 52 |
| Jalen Williams | 16 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 33 |
| Chet Holmgren | 16 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 35 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 13 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 28 |
| I. Hartenstein | 10 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 31 |
Spurs vs. Thunder game-day updates and essential details
Monday's action between the Thunder and Spurs in the NBA Playoffs is scheduled to start at 8:30 PM ET.
- Who: San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Date: Monday, May 18, 2026
- Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30PM PT
- Venue: Paycom Center
- NBA Playoffs bracket: Updated NBA Playoffs bracket and schedule
The NBA Playoffs is an annual elimination tournament held to decide the league's champion.
A total of 16 teams, including the Spurs and Thunder, reached the NBA Playoffs 2026, which spans four rounds: the First Round, Conference Semifinals, Conference Finals, and NBA Finals.
Each round is played as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins moving on to the next round until a champion is crowned.
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Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with a 71% win probability, will likely beat the Spurs in Monday's NBA playoffs matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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