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Mariners vs. Astros prediction: Seattle favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [5/14/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros predictions for MLB Thursday.
The Houston Astros will face the Seattle Mariners, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Daikin Park on Thursday, beginning at 2:10 PM ET.
Mike Burrows (2-4, 5.04 ERA) will start for the Astros, while the Mariners have opted for Luis Castillo (0-4, 6.57 ERA).
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Mariners a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Astros.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Mariners vs. Astros matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mariners vs. Astros prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's MLB matchup between the Mariners and Astros, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Mariners a 52% chance of defeating the Astros.
According to our model, the Astros (+1.5) have a 60% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of nine runs has a 52% chance of going over.
Mariners vs. Astros odds [5/14/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mariners | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+128) | +1.5 (-148) |
| Moneyline | -126 | +110 |
| Total | o9 (-114) | u9 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mariners vs. Astros picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Astros +1.5 | -148 |
| Moneyline | Astros | +110 |
| Total | Over 9 | -114 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Astros to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mariners vs. Astros game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB action between the Astros and Mariners at Daikin Park is scheduled to begin at 2:10 PM ET.
- Who: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
- Date: Thursday, May 14, 2026
- Time: 2:10 PM ET/11:10AM PT
- Venue: Daikin Park
Conclusion
We predict the Mariners, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Astros in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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