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Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid prediction, odds, La Liga picks [4/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid predictions for La Liga Saturday.
La Liga action continues on Saturday at 3:00 PM ET as Atletico Madrid locks horns with Sevilla at .
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced La Liga model projects Atletico Madrid as the most likely winner of the Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid game.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid prediction: Who will win?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's La Liga match between Sevilla and Atletico Madrid, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model suggests a 31.3% chance of Sevilla winning, a 41.5% chance for Atletico Madrid, and a 27.2% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 56% chance of staying under, according to our model.
Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid odds
We have researched the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Sevilla | Atletico Madrid | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +210 | +145 | +220 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| +105 | -145 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atletico Madrid | +145 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | -145 |
According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Atletico Madrid to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| SEV 1-1 ATM | 12.9% |
| SEV 0-1 ATM | 11.5% |
| SEV 1-0 ATM | 9.7% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 49.4% chance of both sides finding the net and a 50.6% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.
Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's La Liga game between Sevilla and Atletico Madrid is scheduled to begin in the USA at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid
- Date: Saturday, April 11, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Sevilla has a 31.3% win probability on Saturday, Atletico Madrid has a 41.5% win probability, and there is a 27.2% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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