Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Why Arizona is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [7/17/2026]
Get St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks predictions for MLB Friday.
The Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals are scheduled to meet in MLB action at Chase Field on Friday, starting at 9:40 PM ET.
The Diamondbacks will send Merrill Kelly (7-8, 5.38 ERA) to the mound, pitting him against Michael McGreevy (4-7, 3.01 ERA) for the Cardinals.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Diamondbacks a slight edge with a 52.0% win probability over the Cardinals.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks matchup, including best bets and picks.
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Who will win?
Our leading predictive model gives the Diamondbacks a 52.0% chance of beating the Cardinals.
According to our model, the over/under total of 9.5 runs has a 51.5% chance of going over,.
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks odds [7/17/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Cardinals | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -104 | +102 |
| Total | o9.5 (+117) | u9.5 (-120) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Diamondbacks | +102 |
| Total | Over 9.5 | +117 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB action between the Diamondbacks and Cardinals at Chase Field is scheduled to start at 9:40 PM ET.
- Who: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
- Date: Friday, July 17, 2026
- Time: 9:40 PM ET/6:40PM PT
- Venue: Chase Field
Conclusion
We predict the Diamondbacks, with a 52.0% win probability, will likely beat the Cardinals in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
