The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast Parlay: Bet these three futures at +17840 odds

Put your daily sports betting picks aside and gear up for a cross-sport parlay, brought to you by the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast.

The NFL has crowned it's latest champion, and the NBA, NHL and college basketball will all do the same in the upcoming months.

If you're a regular listener of the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast, you likely caught our Super Bowl Challenge between hosts Greg Waddell and Dave Garofolo, in which they each drafted their best 5-man team in Seahawks vs. Patriots, with the team that scored the most fantasy points being declared the winner.

On the line? A $5 futures bet of the winner's choice, to be placed by the loser.

The results of the Super Bowl Duel between Team Greg and Team Dave.

After besting Dave in the duel, it's time for Greg to cash in his $5 futures bet, and he's turned to three teams backed by the Dimers model to make a run at their respective championship, paying out at +17840 odds for the three-leg futures parlay, inspired by our recent futures-centric podcast episode. One team is a favorite, one is a top value pick form the Dimers model and the other is a darkhorse, each of them hitting a different tier of contender.

Below, we'll look at the three picks that Greg's chosen alongside the Dimers model data, and we'll be checking in on the progress of this one regularly on upcoming episodes of the podcast, so be sure to subscribe to the show on YouTube or whichever platform you prefer so you don't miss a beat.

Greg's +17840 Futures Parlay

Three leagues. Three teams. Three runs at a championship.

Let's break them down.

The Favorite - Oklahoma City Thunder to win the NBA Finals (+130)

We start off with the biggest probability and shortest odds of them all, the Oklahoma City Thunder to go back-to-back.

Our NBA finals predictions align with the sportsbooks as far as the Thunder sitting as a heavy favorite. Our 40.1% probability as of the All-Star Break is a significant discrepancy over the Denver Nuggets at 16.2%.

At odds of +130, there's no real value on the Thunder, but fair odds would be +150, so there's not a huge difference there, and for the sake of a parlay, Greg's more focused on a high probability leg.

OKC has hit their toughest stretch of the season, no longer the unbeatable force they were for the first two months, but they'll be in the playoffs with an improved roster, provided Shai Gilgeous-Alexander returns from his absence healthy and they avoid any other major injuries.

They'll need to get over their issues vs. the Spurs, who took the first 3 season games, as they could face each other in a crucial postseason series, but Greg is riding with the model's top probability for his leg in the NBA.

The Value - Tampa Bay Lightning to win the Stanley Cup (+500)

We move to the NHL for the play with the value in our Stanley Cup Futures predictions.

The Lightning are one of the few true contenders in any current league where our numbers still find a betting edge, something we talked through on the latest Dimers podcast, and they lead the three Stanley Cup value plays we highlighted at the break.

Tampa Bay’s title probability has jumped from just 6.0% preseason to 21.8% in the Dimers model, implying fair odds around +360, yet books are still hanging roughly +500, creating real value on a team that’s been the NHL’s hottest since January 1 (13-1-1).

With Andrei Vasilevskiy playing like an elite goalie again and Jon Cooper guiding a mostly healthy roster into the Olympic break, they look much closer to a legitimate Cup favorite than the price suggests, especially for a core that won back-to-back titles only a few years ago.

They'll just need to get over their first-round woes - they've been bounced in the opening series in three straight years after coming up short in their threepeat attempt.

The Darkhorse - St. John's to reach the Final Four (+1200)

To round out the futures parlay, we move to college basketball championship predictions with a look at a team Greg pointed out in our college hoops futures on the most recent podcast episode.

The Dimers model gives the Red Storm a 1.2% chance to win the national title, which translates to fair odds longer than the +7000 range currently available, not enough to qualify as an edge play, but they have some of the best odds compared to other teams in the 1-2% range, nearly double that of the shorter side.

The upside case is legitimate. St. John’s has already proven it can beat elite competition with a win over UConn, showing their peak level stacks up with the best in the Big East, a conference that is effectively a two-team race.

Rather than take them to go all the way to Title Town, Greg is going to play them to reach the Final Four.

A Final Four run requires two fewer wins than cutting down the nets, eliminating a third of the wins needed, and now you're backing a volatile team with real ceiling to show up with their best four times instead of six.

With the tournament getting underway in March, this one will be the first leg up - stay tuned!

Recap

The Oklahoma City Thunder, the Tampa Bay Lightning and St. John's - each one picked to make a run at their respective title.

The Thunder are the favorite, the Lightning are the value play, and St. John's are the pre-bracket darkhorse who could shake things up in March.

Put 'em all together and you've got a +17840 parlay.

Let us know what you think of Greg's picks at us Dimers on social and give us a shout if you're tailing along!

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Past episodes

Find all previous episodes of the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast here!

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