The Open Championship predictions, picks and best bets at Royal Birkdale
It's time for the final golf major of the year at The Open Championship, and we break down the best bets from the Dimers model as Scottie Scheffler looks to retain his title after missing last week's cut.
It's major week for the final time on the PGA TOUR, with the 154th edition of The Open Championship teeing off at Royal Birkdale from Thursday, July 16, through Sunday, July 19 and we're back with the Dimers golf betting predictions to find the best golfers worth betting on to hoist the Claret Jug this weekend.
Thanks to our weekly golf predictions, we've identified Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS, Matt Fitzpatrick to win the Valspar Championship, and cashing our reduced odds H2H parlay at the Masters as some of this year's standout victories.
To take full advantage of all of our golf betting insights ahead of the final major of the year, claim your 3-day free trial of Dimers Pro and get unlimited access to our golf features and more for 72 hours, including articles like this one and our golf parlays.
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154th The Open preview
- Date: July 16-July 19, 2026
- Location: Southport, England
- Course: Royal Birkdale
- Par: 70 / 7,223 yards
Golf's oldest championship makes a long-awaited return to Royal Birkdale this week for the first time since 2017 as the 154th Open Championship tees off on Thursday.
This year's field is stacked, featuring all 30 of the top 30 players in the FedExCup standings and 50 of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking. Scottie Scheffler arrives as the defending champion off his first missed cut since 2022, and looking to rebound and keep a recent trend rolling, as an American has claimed four of the last five titles. With only four weeks left before the FedExCup Playoffs begin, this week carries extra weight for players jockeying for position down the stretch.
Royal Birkdale is a classic links course, playing to a par 70 over 7,223 yards. Penal rough and punishing fairway bunkers await anyone who strays from the fairway, and as always at The Open, the weather will have its say. There have been a number of changes since last hosting, including the 14th hole flipped from a par 3 to a par 5, while the 15th went the other direction, converting from a par 5 to a par 3.
As for the forecast, players should get a relatively tame test by Open Championship standards, but don't count out the wind entirely. Links golf has a way of shifting on short notice, and the redesigned course will test even those familiar with it.
Now, let's dig into the value!
Who will win the 154th British Open?
Our win predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Scottie Scheffler | 13.1% | 37.0% | 52.6% | 69.3% |
| 2. Rory McIlroy | 6.4% | 23.6% | 38.4% | 55.9% |
| 3. Matt Fitzpatrick | 5.2% | 20.5% | 33.9% | 52.5% |
| 4. Tommy Fleetwood | 4.4% | 17.9% | 30.3% | 48.9% |
| 5. Tyrrell Hatton | 3.6% | 14.9% | 26.0% | 43.3% |
For each tournament, we look at the golfers our model has identified with a higher probability to win than what is implied by the sportsbook odds.
We'll also highlight any standout prop and placement bets for other golfers if we find any appealing value hidden in the Dimers golf predictions.
To get the most out of this week's PGA TOUR event, check out Dimers' full tournament predictions and compare with course history and other analytics to find an edge.
Dimers' most likely winner: Scottie Scheffler to win (+750 on BetRivers)
Win probability: 13.1%
Dimers' fair odds: +660
Scottie Scheffler enters as Dimers' most likely winner at 13.1%, with the model's fair odds of +660 sitting well inside his market price of +750, the longest he's been all year.
It's a slight step back in confidence, understandably so, after his run of eight straight top-15 finishes in majors was interrupted by a rare off week with his first missed cut in years came at the Genesis Scottish Open.
Still, Scheffler's "down year" has seen him finish 2nd, 4th and T14 in majors, with four total runner-ups, and he leads all players on TOUR in total strokes gained.
He's also over 50% to finish Top 10 but can be found at +100 odds, a strong value play for a placement play that's cashed in 8 of his last 12 majors.
The Open Championship best value bets
Tyrrell Hatton to win (+3600 on DraftKings)
Win probability: 3.6%
Dimers' fair odds: +2680 and above
Tyrrell Hatton represents one of the week's best value plays at +3600, with the Dimers model identifying his true odds at +2680 or longer.
He was on our radar last week as he's been building steadily toward his first major title, ultimately finishing Top 20, backing up top-10 finishes at both the Masters and U.S. Open.
Last week, where he led the field in strokes gained: putting, a skill that should translate directly to Royal Birkdale.
He owns a personal best T5 in 2016 with three Top 20 finishes in his past five tries at The Open.
Wyndham Clark to win (+4100 on DraftKings)
Win probability: 2.6%
Dimers' fair odds: +3750 and above
Despite his peak form, Wyndham Clark is getting far less respect from the books than his game warrants at +4100.
He's won twice, including the US Open in his past six events, finishing no worse than T13, which he did just last week.
He ranks top 10 field this week in total strokes gained and his putting is among some of the best all-around on TOUR, also the driving force behind his U.S. Open win, and he finished T4 at last year's Open Championship.
Patrick Cantlay to win (+6600 on DraftKings)
Win probability: 2.3%
Dimers' fair odds: +4250 and above
Patrick Cantlay closes out the group of value picks at +6600, with a 2.3% win probability and fair odds at any price north of +4250.
While he lacks a signature major breakthrough this year, he showed upside at the Masters with a T12, and his ball-striking gives him a real path to contention in a field this deep.
He peaked with a T8 at The Open in 2022, with his putting his only major drawback to his game this year, but at such a big odds discrepancy, he's worth a look as our main longshot play.
Dimers' golf resources for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pros also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
The Dimers Pro golf predictions ended last season on an elite run, headlined by Tommy Fleetwood's first win at the TOUR Championship.
This season, we've accurately identified the live value on Justin Rose to win the Farmers Insurance Open at +500 and big edges on Tommy Fleetwood at Pebble Beach and our boosted pick of Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS as standout winners of the year.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
