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Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union prediction, odds, MLS picks [4/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union predictions for MLS Wednesday.
Toronto will take on Philadelphia in MLS action at BMO Field on Wednesday, starting at 7:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLS model predicts Toronto as the most likely winner of the Toronto vs. Philadelphia game.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.
Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union prediction: Who will win?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's MLS matchup between Toronto and Philadelphia, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently suggests a 38.7% chance of Toronto winning, a 34.8% chance for Philadelphia, and a 26.4% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 52% chance of staying under, according to our model.
Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union odds
We have sourced the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Toronto | Philadelphia | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +150 | +180 | +250 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -115 | -118 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Philadelphia | +180 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | -118 |
According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is Philadelphia to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Correct score predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| TFC 1-1 PHI | 12.6% |
| TFC 1-0 PHI | 10% |
| TFC 0-1 PHI | 9.4% |
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's game between Toronto and Philadelphia in MLS at BMO Field is scheduled to commence at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union
- Date: Wednesday, April 22, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: BMO Field
World Cup 2026 watch: Quinn Sullivan (USA)
Philadelphia attacking midfielder Quinn Sullivan is a key name to follow for USMNT fans this season as anticipation ramps up ahead of the FIFA World Cup 2026—an event generating plenty of World Cup news and early debates about who will win the World Cup. With the United States set to face Australia, Paraguay, and Türkiye in Group D next year, Sullivan's club form will be tracked closely.
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Toronto has a 38.7% win probability on Wednesday, Philadelphia has a 34.8% win probability, and there is a 26.4% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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