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Nationals vs. Reds prediction: Why Cincinnati is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [5/14/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds predictions for MLB Thursday.
The Cincinnati Reds will take on the Washington Nationals in MLB action at Great American Ball Park on Thursday, beginning at 12:40 PM ET.
Chase Burns (4-1, 2.11 ERA) will get the ball for the Reds, up against Foster Griffin (4-1, 2.12 ERA) for the Nationals.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Reds as the most likely winner of the Nationals vs. Reds game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Nationals vs. Reds prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB game between the Nationals and Reds, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Reds a 60% chance of beating the Nationals.
According to our model, the Nationals (+1.5) have a 57% chance of covering the run line, while the 8-run over/under has a 54% chance of going over.
Nationals vs. Reds odds [5/14/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Nationals | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-154) | -1.5 (+140) |
| Moneyline | +136 | -157 |
| Total | o8 (-114) | u8 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Nationals vs. Reds picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Reds -1.5 | +140 |
| Moneyline | Reds | -157 |
| Total | Over 8 | -114 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Reds -1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Nationals vs. Reds game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB matchup between the Reds and Nationals at Great American Ball Park is scheduled to start at 12:40 PM ET.
- Who: Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Date: Thursday, May 14, 2026
- Time: 12:40 PM ET/9:40AM PT
- Venue: Great American Ball Park
Conclusion
We predict the Reds, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Nationals in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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