May 22, 2026
Wings vs. Dream prediction: Paige Bueckers projected to score 17 points in Friday's WNBA game [5/22/2026]
Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, May 22, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 5/22.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, May 22, 2026—are live with the Pacers' Kelsey Mitchell projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections derive insights from detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Mitchell, Paige Bueckers and Brittney Griner lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (May 22, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) | 14.7% |
| Paige Bueckers (Wings) | 14.6% |
| Brittney Griner (Sun) | 14.6% |
| Natisha Hiedeman (Storm) | 12.6% |
| Allisha Gray (Dream) | 12.4% |
| Janelle Salaun (Valkyries) | 12.2% |
| Flau'jae Johnson (Storm) | 12.0% |
| Rhyne Howard (Dream) | 11.8% |
| Caitlin Clark (Fever) | 11.4% |
| Gabby Williams (Valkyries) | 10.4% |
| Aliyah Boston (Fever) | 10.3% |
| Aneesah Morrow (Sun) | 10.1% |
| Jade Melbourne (Storm) | 10.1% |
| Angel Reese (Dream) | 10.0% |
| Hailey Van Lith (Sun) | 10.0% |
| Odyssey Sims (Wings) | 9.9% |
| Kayla Thornton (Valkyries) | 9.8% |
| Azzi Fudd (Wings) | 9.3% |
| Veronica Burton (Valkyries) | 9.2% |
| Lexie Brown (Storm) | 8.5% |
| Kaila Charles (Valkyries) | 8.5% |
| Saniya Rivers (Sun) | 8.5% |
| Arike Ogunbowale (Wings) | 8.5% |
| Jordin Canada (Dream) | 8.3% |
| Jessica Shepard (Wings) | 7.7% |
| Naz Hillmon (Dream) | 7.5% |
| Monique Billings (Fever) | 7.3% |
| Stefanie Dolson (Storm) | 6.9% |
| Kennedy Burke (Sun) | 6.8% |
| Lexie Hull (Fever) | 6.4% |
WNBA first basket picks today (May 22, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natisha Hiedeman | Storm | 5.4% | +1300 | 12.6% |
| Kelsey Mitchell | Fever | 3.5% | +800 | 14.7% |
| Paige Bueckers | Wings | 1.3% | +650 | 14.6% |
| Odyssey Sims | Wings | 0.4% | +950 | 9.9% |
| Gabby Williams | Valkyries | 0.4% | +900 | 10.4% |
| Flau'jae Johnson | Storm | 0.2% | +750 | 12.0% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/22.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, May 22, 2026, Kelsey Mitchell, Paige Bueckers and Brittney Griner lead our first basket projections, while Natisha Hiedeman shapes as the strongest value play at +1300. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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