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2026 Cadillac Championship predictions: Golf picks and best bets at Blue Monster Course
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The 2026 PGA TOUR heads to Miami, FL for the Cadillac Championship, the latest Signature Event, and we break down the best value from the Dimers model.
After last week's Zurich Classic team event, the Dimers golf predictions and best golf bets are back for the Cadillac Championship, teeing off on Thursday, April 30, through Sunday, May 3 at the Blue Monster Course in Miami, FL.
Prior to the Zurich Classic, our predictions identified Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS, Matt Fitzpatrick to win the Valspar Championship, and cashing our reduced odds H2H parlay at the Masters.
This week's tournament tees off a run of two Signature Events before the next major, the PGA Championship, presenting a great time to try out the Dimers Pro golf tools, available now with a 3-day free trial.
2026 Cadillac Championship preview
- Date: April 30-May 3, 2026
- Location: Miami, FL
- Course: Trump National Doral (Blue Monster Course)
- Par: 72 / 7,739 yards
- Purse: $20,000,000
After a 10-year hiatus, the PGA TOUR returns to Trump National Doral, also knows as the "Blue Monster" course.
This is the first of back-to-back Signature Events with the second major of the season fast approaching, meaning the world's best will be looking to dial in their form at one of the most demanding environments all season.
The Blue Monster lives up to its namesake, stretching 7,739 yards where water is visible in play on virtually every hole, and the ever-present threat of wind adds an additional element that even the most accurate ballstrikers must contend with.
The field is headlined by world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, though it arrives without some notable names as Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Åberg, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Robert MacIntyre have all opted to sit this one out.
Those who can drive the ball far and with accuracy on this long par-72 will stand out among the rest when it comes to Sunday's stretch run.
Who will win the 2026 Cadillac Championship?
Our win predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Scottie Scheffler | 22.9% | 53.8% | 69.8% | 85.3% |
| 2. Cameron Young | 5.7% | 22.8% | 38.3% | 61.0% |
| 3. Russell Henley | 4.2% | 19.6% | 36.1% | 57.9% |
| 4. Tommy Fleetwood | 4.2% | 19.2% | 33.2% | 55.3% |
| 5. Collin Morikawa | 4.1% | 20.4% | 34.3% | 56.6% |
For each tournament, we look at the golfers our model has identified with a higher probability to win than what is implied by the sportsbook odds.
We'll also highlight any standout prop and placement bets for other golfers if we find any appealing value hidden in the Dimers golf predictions.
To get the most out of this week's PGA TOUR event, check out Dimers' full tournament predictions and compare with course history and other analytics to find an edge.
Dimers' top pick: Russell Henley to win (+2700 on bet365)
Win probability: 4.2%
Dimers' fair odds: +2280 and above
Russell Henley enters as Dimers' top pick and the best value play on the board, with his 4.2% win probability exceeding the 3.6% implied by his +2700 odds.
Outside of two missed cuts, only one of which came at a Signature event or major, Henley has been excellent in 2025, posting finishes of T8, T6, and T3 alongside four other top-20s.
He's a great putter and well-rounded player who ranks tied for 2nd-best on TOUR in strokes gained accuracy, though his lack of power (149th in driving distance) keeps him from being a perfect fit.
Fortunately, driving distance matters little if you can't find the fairway, and Henley consistently plays above the field mean in that regard.
Encouragingly, his best rounds have come on Sundays, so even if he's not leading after 54 holes, don't count out a late charge.
Cadillac Championship best bets and longshot picks
Hideki Matsuyama to win (+3200 on DraftKings)
Win probability: 2.8%
Dimers' fair odds: +3470 and above
Fresh off a T12 at the Masters, Matsuyama arrives rested at an unfamiliar track.
The 34-year-old has been consistent in 2025, with just two finishes outside the Top 25 and a pair of top-10s to his name. His putting is at his best, complementing his elite long approach play, where he ranks 2nd-best on shots over 200 yards as a proven scorer on long holes.
Some of his best rounds have come early on this year, making him a sneaky first-round leader candidate as well.
At +3200, he's just barely shy of fair value (implied 3.0% vs. his 2.8% probability), but any sportsbook boost would push him into value territory.
Akshay Bhatia to win (+5200 on DraftKings)
Win probability: 2.2%
Dimers' fair odds: +4445 and above
Bhatia represents a solid edge +5200, with his 2.2% win probability above the 1.9% implied by the books.
The young lefty showed he can handle the long tracks with his Arnold Palmer Invitational victory at Bay Hill a prime example.
He also ranks 3rd on TOUR in birdie or better rate. Since a shaky start of back-to-back missed cuts to the year, he's rattled off an impressive run: T16, Cut, T13, Win, T16, T6, T3.
Bhatia ranks 7th in SG: Total, and while he's below average in driving distance, his accuracy hovers near the field average and his exceptional par-4 scoring and short-game cleanup work should keep him in the mix.
Cadillac Championship longshot bets
Beyond the Dimers model favorites, several golfers have an outright edge at odds of more than 60/1, setting up longshot bets for winners or Top 20 placements at good plus-money value.
Corey Conners to win (+9000 on BetMGM)
Win probability: 1.0%
Dimers' fair odds: +9000 and above
Conners is right at fair value at +9000, with his implied 1.0% win probability matching up exactly with Dimers' projection.
He's shown flashes of upside recently with a T12 at the Valspar and a T14 at THE PLAYERS, and his approach game is a genuine weapon, ranking inside the Top 25 on TOUR.
Like our top pick of Henley, Conners is a precision-over-power driver, 2nd-best in accuracy but 112th in distance.
The concern is his short game, where his putting and around-the-green work have been below standard and could cap his ceiling.
He's a fine play at current odds, and one of few longshots even close to a betting edge, but you're not getting a patented Dimers edge.
Dimers' golf resources for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pros also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
The Dimers Pro golf predictions ended last season on an elite run, headlined by Tommy Fleetwood's first win at the TOUR Championship.
This season, we've accurately identified the live value on Justin Rose to win the Farmers Insurance Open at +500 and big edges on Tommy Fleetwood at Pebble Beach and our boosted pick of Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS as standout winners of the year.
Dimers and responsible gambling
Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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